PP日报：震荡上行-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move up in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles. Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Parts Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% year - on - year, a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year - On January 9, some overhauled plants such as Donghua Energy (Ningbo) Phase I restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 79%, a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 25.5% - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years - On the cost side, although the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, the key oil facilities in the country are not damaged, and its output accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, but the crude oil price remains weak - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled plants has increased recently - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized purchasing in the market, so the boost to the market is limited. Traders are on the sidelines - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the 2026 trade - in and "two key" quotas, creating a warm macro environment, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with the lowest price of 6,456 yuan/ton, the highest price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.31%. The position volume decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2] - In the spot market, the spot prices of PP in various regions have partially increased, with drawstring priced at 6,070 - 6,530 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 9, some overhauled plants such as Donghua Energy (Ningbo) Phase I restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 79%, a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 25.5% - On the demand side, as of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% year - on - year, a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 57 million tons week - on - week, 1 million tons higher than the same period last year - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil contract 03 rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $750 per ton [4]