尿素日报：窄幅整理-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened lower and closed higher today, with a decline at the close. The overall price remained stable with some factory prices slightly loosening. Ample supply continued to limit the upside of the futures price. The market trading activity decreased, and agricultural demand was in the off - season. After the environmental protection warning was lifted, the compound fertilizer production resumed, but the upside was limited. The melamine production load increased by 6.7 percentage points with mainly demand resilience and no significant increase. The inventory at factories started to accumulate slightly. In the short term, without a clear driver, the urea futures would fluctuate and consolidate [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea opened lower and closed higher, with an intraday decline. The overall price was stable with some factory prices loosening. The supply was abundant as shutdown units resumed production, suppressing the futures price. The market trading activity declined, and agricultural demand was in the off - season, with the next concentrated agricultural demand around the wheat green - turning top - dressing period around the Lunar New Year. After the end of environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer production recovered, but the upside was limited as it approached the year - end holiday, and the demand for urea lacked upward elasticity. The melamine production load increased by 6.7 percentage points, with demand showing resilience but no significant increase. Factory inventory started to accumulate slightly, and in the short term, the futures would fluctuate and consolidate [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1776 yuan/ton, opened lower and closed higher, and ended the day with a decline. It closed at 1777 yuan/ton, forming a positive line, with a change rate of - 0.22% and a position of 232,407 lots (- 244 lots). Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 279 lots and the short positions decreased by 42 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position increase of 2506 lots, Zhongjin Fortune had a net long position increase of 208 lots; Yinhe Futures had a net short position increase of 1174 lots, and Zhongtai Futures had a net short position increase of 1197 lots [2] - Spot: As the trading atmosphere weakened, some factory prices loosened slightly, and the overall price was stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1680 to 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] Warehouse Receipts - On January 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,850, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 27 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply Data: According to Feiyitong data, on January 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 202,000 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 83.24% [9]