有色金属日报-20260109

Report's Investment Ratings for Different Metals - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as holding certain option strategies, participating in hedging, and being cautious in trading [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper market reduced positions and fluctuated, recovering intraday losses. The impact of the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs on copper is limited. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum increased positions and rose. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed. The short - term rise is driven by funds, deviating from the fundamentals. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum plants can consider selling hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is light. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of pre - consuming, and the demand may not be weak in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - The SMM 1 aluminum has a discount to the near - month contract. The import window is open, and the overseas surplus can be transmitted to the domestic market. The recycled aluminum production has increased after profit repair. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has improved. The stainless steel inventory has decreased. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions and traded around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot price has support at the integer - level high. The option strategy of selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be held until maturity [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has slightly improved. The price center is slowly rising, and the mine - end price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and closed slightly down. The supply side has production cuts, and the demand side has reduced demand. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after the limit - down. The market's expectation for capacity clearance has changed. The supply is still high, and the price is seeking cost support [11]