通胀数据点评：输入性通胀的影响在升温

Inflation Data Summary - The CPI for December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, matching expectations, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month[1][7] - The PPI for December 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of -1.9%, an improvement from -2.2% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[1][7] Key Influences on CPI and PPI - Copper and gold prices significantly influenced the December inflation, with copper prices rising 7.9% month-on-month, contributing positively to PPI[2][8] - The contribution of coal prices to PPI was relatively minor, while international oil prices declined, negatively impacting domestic oil prices and dragging PPI down by -0.05%[2][8] Food and Service CPI Trends - Food CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, driven by supply constraints in fresh vegetables and fruits[3][23] - Service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, primarily due to weak rental demand affecting housing costs[25] Future Outlook - The ability of anti-involution policies to sustain upward pressure on downstream prices is critical, as commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations in the past three years[4][29] - High gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support a rise in core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival could limit January's CPI increase[4][29]