甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Although there is short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, there is pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 57,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 16,400 tons. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign vessels unloading during the period. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, but the delivery from the side storage areas along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrived at the port intensively, and the inventory increased significantly under stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly this week. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of import and domestic trade vessel replenishment during the period, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas decreased due to the holiday, resulting in little inventory fluctuation. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at the port this week, and the inventory decreased under the rigid demand of downstream consumption [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The interest rates of short-term large-denomination certificates of deposit in some banks have entered the "0 range", which is similar to that of ordinary time deposits. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year-on-year. China's CPI annual rate in December was 0.8%, with an expected value of 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand pose some pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3]