纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock is on the strong side [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply-demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro expectations and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong operation, but the upward space may be limited. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The main contract of soda ash opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands continued to have three tracks upward, indicating a short-term shock on the strong side. The upper pressure was focused on the 20 and 60 moving averages on the weekly line, and the support continued to focus on the 40 moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 643,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 1,967 lots. The intraday high was 1,242, the low was 1,204, and the closing price was 1,228, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (1.6% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: It was stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the maintenance expectations were few. The industrial supply hovered at a high level. The downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the demand was neither strong nor weak, and most of them maintained low-price on-demand replenishment and were resistant to high prices [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 22 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56,500 tons (8.11% increase). Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, compared with 79.96% last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.43%. Among them, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month-on-month increase of 11.20%; the combined process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month-on-month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 88.15%, a month-on-month increase of 2.24% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons compared with Monday (4.26% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 40,800 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons (11.67% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10,190 tons (6.93% increase) [2] - Demand: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month-on-month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2][3] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined process was -40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-soda process was -57.85 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material ore salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, resulting in an increase in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current daily output of soda ash has reached 110,300 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.39%. Coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Before the New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down for cold repair, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing the inventory. However, there is certain short-term support under continuous losses and positive macro sentiment [4]