国投期货黑色金属日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil: Not clearly defined in the given rating system [1] - Iron ore: Not clearly defined in the given rating system [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is still weak, and the steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern. The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high - level volatility risks. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are recommended to buy on dips [2][3][7] Summary by Directory Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Thread steel's apparent demand decreased, production slightly increased, and inventory started to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand fell, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory decreased slowly. Steel mill profits improved marginally, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and hot metal output increased in the short term. Downstream industries' investment showed a weak trend, and steel exports remained high. The market is expected to be range - bound [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was weakly volatile. Supply decreased seasonally globally, domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventories increased significantly. Demand was weak in the off - season, steel mill profits declined, and hot metal production increased but was difficult to significantly recover in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still low, with winter storage expectations. The market is at risk of increased high - level volatility [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated within the day. The fifth round of price cuts was postponed, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory remained almost unchanged. Carbon supply is abundant, downstream hot metal output is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials is at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated after rising within the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after the New Year. Spot auction transactions were okay, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventories increased slightly, and total coking coal inventories increased significantly. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Manganese ore spot prices increased. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventories. Demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. Hot metal production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price was relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Hot metal production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium metal production increased. Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]