热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of being cautiously bullish on hot - rolled coils [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production pressure of hot - rolled coils is not significant. The anti - involution policy provides strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year - on - year performance is still strong. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The strong performance of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot - rolled coil market has large fluctuations and is currently near the moving - average support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Friday decreased compared with the previous trading day. It decreased in position and fluctuated within the day, standing above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, closing at 3294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton or 1.02% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 14 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to spot [2] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared with the previous week, and increased by 16,200 tons year - on - year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks due to improved profitability of steel mills, iron - water transfer from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after annual maintenance [3] - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared with the previous week, showing a slight decline. However, it increased by 72,500 tons year - on - year, indicating that demand still has resilience [3] - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons. The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a high level in the past five years, exerting pressure on prices [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference in December are beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real - estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron - ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding - expected resumption of production of steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5]