瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260108

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. In December, the three major official PMI indices in China rebounded from below the boom - bust line to the expansion range, indicating economic repair signs. The important meetings at the end of 2025 set a positive tone for the economic work in 2026, creating a warm macro - environment and strong bottom support for A - shares [2]. - The US labor market shows a mild recovery. However, due to the demand for foreign exchange settlement of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. After the offshore RMB exchange rate weakened on January 7th, it strengthened again, and the strong exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter [2]. - As the Spring Festival is relatively late this year, the market has started to trade in advance the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March, leading to an obvious pre - positioning of the A - share spring market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - Contract Prices: The latest price of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2603) is 4718.4, down 33.0; the IH (SSE 50) main contract (2603) is 3122.4, down 19.4; the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2603) is 7814.4, up 4.2; the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2603) is 7820.6, up 52.0 [2]. - Contract Spreads: The IF - IH spread of the current - month contract is 1616.2, down 12.2; the IC - IF spread is 3151.6, up 54.8; the IM - IC spread is 64.6, up 52.2 [2]. - Net Positions of Top 20: The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 31,972.00, up 2406.0; in IH is - 15,637.00, up 327.0; in IC is - 28,190.00, down 1954.0; in IM is - 43,286.00, down 2146.0 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the IF main contract is - 19.3, up 4.4; the IH main contract is 0.3, up 1.7; the IC main contract is - 80.1, down 7.7; the IM main contract is - 552.6, down 151.0 [2]. Spot Market Data - Index Prices: The CSI 300 is 4737.65, down 39.0; the SSE 50 is 3122.1, down 23.1; the CSI 500 is 7894.5, up 19.5; the CSI 1000 is not clearly presented in a comparable form [2]. - Market Turnover and Balance: A - share trading volume is 7,971.6 billion yuan, up 65.2; margin trading balance is 26,047.42 billion yuan, up 248.42; north - bound trading volume is 3268.59 billion yuan, up 82.68 [2]. Market Sentiment - Fund Flows: The main funds' net outflow decreased from - 633.24 billion yuan to - 536.40 billion yuan [2]. - Option Data: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2601) is 40.60, down 21.40; the implied volatility is 14.99%, up 0.28; the closing price of the put option is 49.00, up 12.40; the implied volatility is 14.99%, down 0.10 [2]. - Volatility and PCR: The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index is 13.64%, up 0.24; the volume PCR is 47.47%, down 5.47; the open interest PCR is 75.80%, down 6.80 [2]. Industry News - A - share major indices mostly closed down, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The defense and military industry sector strengthened significantly, while the non - bank financial sector weakened [2]. - In the US, the private - sector employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline and driving the overnight US dollar index stronger [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On January 8th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in December; on January 9th at 9:30, China's December CPI and PPI; on January 9th at 21:30, the US's December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].