Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-08 09:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. With Australian rapeseed arriving, the marginal supply increases, and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations enhances the medium - and long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price dropped significantly today and is generally volatile [2]. - The rapeseed oil market: Domestic oil mills continue to be shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price and keeping the basis at a high level. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure increases. The rapeseed oil price is volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Prices: The futures closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 8,956 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,358 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. The futures closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 618.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5.7 Canadian dollars; that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was 13 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was - 61 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main - contract position of rapeseed oil was 248,582 lots, up 20,113 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 785,807 lots, up 64,896 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 22,389 lots, down 9,350 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 97,538 lots, down 78,782 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,892, down 238; that of rapeseed meal was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,806.25 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed was 7,488.03 yuan/ton, up 87.2 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 744 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract was 82 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,220 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,080 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecasted rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 499 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - Inventory and Utilization Rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - Imports: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume was 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6. Options Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.56%, up 1.51%; that of at - the - money put options was 19.57%, up 1.51%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.25%, up 1.35%; that of at - the - money put options was 16.25%, up 1.36% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.75%, down 0.59%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 12%, up 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.01%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.17%, up 0.01% [2]. 3.7. Industry News - On January 7 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by optimistic trade expectations and the spill - over effect of the stronger US soybeans. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.10 Canadian dollars, settling at 620 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market [2]. 3.8. Key Points to Follow - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2].