Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-08 09:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will enter an adjustment phase, and investors should pay attention to the battle at the 24,000 yuan mark. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has intensified, leading to a significant decline in processing fees both at home and abroad, and a contraction in domestic smelter profits, which is expected to continue to limit production. The export window may close again due to the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rise in the Shanghai-London ratio. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening, while the automotive sector has some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, with weak procurement recently, high and stable spot premiums, and a significant increase in domestic inventories. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased, the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment is cautious, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan; the 02 - 03 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,167.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 83.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 225,559 lots, a decrease of 4,684 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 5,885 lots, an increase of 163 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 45.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.53 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 1.139 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, an increase of 240,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 25.8%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 25.8%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 19.15%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 12.39%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments plan to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals, aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence in China by 2027. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct its annual weight re - balancing from January 8th to 14th, and the "technical selling" of passive funds may cause a liquidity shock. In the US, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the decline in November but lower than expected. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more than one - year low, with the number of job openings less than the number of unemployed for the first time in four years, indicating a slowdown in recruitment. The ISM services PMI in December reached 54.4, a more than one - year high, showing robust demand and a recovery in recruitment [3].