瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has relatively sufficient supply as the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 6 million tons, and the ginning mills' lint processing is nearly finished. The orders for medium - and high - count yarns from downstream textile enterprises are stable, with most enterprises making just - in - time replenishments. Some regional warehouses have seen a slight decrease in inventory, and overall outbound shipments are good, but the national commercial inventory is expected to continue increasing. - There are growing expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, and the new cycle of target price subsidies provides a bottom - line support. In the short term, the upward driving force for cotton prices remains unchanged, and potential risks and correction opportunities should be monitored. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,740 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,795 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 162,774 lots, an increase of 27,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 2,298 lots, an increase of 203 lots. - The main contract positions of cotton were 862,891 lots, a decrease of 62,575 lots; the main contract positions of cotton yarn were 17,043 lots, a decrease of 906 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 7,189 lots, an increase of 140 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 20 lots, unchanged. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,992 yuan/ton, an increase of 208 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of imported cotton (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,599 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,059 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan. - The arrival price of imported cotton (FCIndexM:sliding duty) was 13,729 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,387 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,308 yuan/ton, down 208 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 2,263 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.039 million tons, an increase of 0.038 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, an increase of 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, an increase of 1,017,314.08 thousand US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 15.87%, an increase of 2.74%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 15.87%, an increase of 2.73%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.63%, an increase of 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.53%, an increase of 0.27%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of the week of January 4, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 0.53% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 397,300 tons. Among them, the inventory in Shandong's Qingdao, Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was 334,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.48%, the inventory in Jiangsu's Zhangjiagang port and surrounding warehouses was about 34,100 tons, and the inventory in other ports was about 29,200 tons. This week, the arrivals were mainly Brazilian and Australian cotton, and the quotas have not been issued yet, with the market in a wait - and - see mode. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures fell on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains and closing lower due to the stronger US dollar. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.21 cents, or 0.32%, at 64.85 cents per pound. - Brazil's cotton sowing progress is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6%. [2]