聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚：聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Cost - neutral; Device change - neutral; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bullish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bullish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - cautiously bearish; Spot - cautiously bearish; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: During the holiday, PTA changed little, polyester slightly reduced its load, the near - end balance was tight, the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from January to February was not large, and the spot processing fee expanded significantly. After the valuation repair, the driving force was average. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of cost and funds [5][53] - PX: The supply and demand of PX were acceptable. In the short term, PXN was above 350, and the supply at home and abroad both increased marginally. The short - term valuation was not low. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the callback [6][81] - Ethylene glycol: The overseas maintenance of ethylene glycol increased, and the subsequent import volume might decrease. Although the expected arrival was not low, it still faced seasonal inventory accumulation. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate within a range [7][132] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Terminal Demand and Polyester - Terminal demand: Seasonal decline, mainly digesting raw material inventory before and after the holiday, downstream inventory for about half a month. As of January 4, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing decreased to 74% (-5%), 59% (-1%), and 69% (-) respectively [10] - Polyester load: As of January 4, it was around 90.8%. The polyester cash flow was squeezed, and the average inventory reached about 11.4 days. The pre - holiday raw materials were strong, the polyester profit was squeezed, and the cash flow was in deficit. Large manufacturers reduced production, but the current inventory was not high, so the load was maintained. The estimated loads in December and January were 91% and 88% respectively. After mid - January, polyester factories had plans to gradually reduce production due to poor efficiency [15][42] - Polyester inventory: Currently stable with a slight increase, and the pressure was not large. As of January 4, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber were 13.3, 23.7, 13.6, and 9.7 days respectively [16] - Polyester profit: Generally poor. Before the holiday, the cost was strong, and the profit of the polyester filament industry chain was compressed. The cash flows of filament and chips were significantly in deficit [27] PTA - Device changes: Three sets of YS were under maintenance, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan 1 restarted, Dushan 3 was under maintenance, Weilian increased its load to 90%. In January, New Materials and Ineos had maintenance plans. Long - term shutdown devices were expected to continue maintenance in 2026, and the planned maintenance volume from January to February was not low. Attention should be paid to whether the devices would restart after the processing fee repair [45][46] - Inventory: As of January 4, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) decreased to 2.3 million tons, the factory inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt inventory slightly decreased. The current inventory pressure was not large [47] - Balance sheet: The near - end was tight, the processing fee was repaired significantly. Attention should be paid to whether the devices would restart. The seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from January to February was not high. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of cost and funds [51][53] PX - Device changes: The domestic operating rate was 90.6%, and the Asian load was 80.9%. Domestically, Yangzi, Weilian, and Fuhua slightly increased their loads, Fujia restarted one line, and Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance. In Asia, two sets of Indonesian devices slightly increased their loads, the GS disproportionation restarted slightly ahead of schedule, and the Indian OMPL device was planned to restart in February [77][81] - Balance sheet: The supply and demand of PX were in a loose balance. PXN rebounded to around 360+, and the valuation was not low. Attention should be paid to the capital changes [79][81] - Price difference: The spread between the PX outer and inner markets widened, the 3 - 5 month spread of PX was stable, and the TA05 processing fee was repaired to over 300 [82] Ethylene Glycol - Device changes: As of January 4, the total domestic load of ethylene glycol was 73.7%, and the coal - based load was 75.8%. The domestic maintenance volume changed little. Fude, Shenghong, and Sinochem Quanzhou were under maintenance. Henan Energy in Yongcheng was replacing the catalyst, Yankuang was under maintenance, and Huayi restarted. The new 200,000 - ton Ningxia Changyi device was in stable operation [99][104] - Import: Overseas device maintenance was not low. There were maintenance plans for two 720,000 - ton lines of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, two sets of 450,000 - ton and 700,000 - ton devices in Saudi Arabia, a 530,000 - ton device in Kuwait, and a 400,000 - ton device in Iran (planned to be maintained at the end of the month), and a 500,000 - ton device in Iran was under maintenance. The South Asian device in the United States was under maintenance, and GCGV was reducing its load. The arrivals from November to December were not low, with 580,000 tons imported in November and an estimated 700,000 tons in December. The arrivals from January to February might decrease [119] - Inventory: As of January 5, the port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was about 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory was neutral. From December 29 to January 4, the expected arrival was about 106,000 tons, and the actual arrival was 83,000 tons. From January 4 to 11, the expected arrival was 178,000 tons, and the port inventory was expected to increase slightly. The raw material inventory days of polyester factories for ethylene glycol were 14.6 days, and the downstream inventory slightly increased [127] - Balance sheet: The overseas maintenance increased, the import expectation improved, providing support below. However, the arrivals were still high, and it was in the process of seasonal inventory accumulation, with limited upward driving force. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate within a range [129][132]