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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral to Bullish [3] - Thermal Coal: Bearish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Imports: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Bullish [3] - MTO Profits: Neutral [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol price has rebounded significantly. On one hand, the shutdown of Iranian plants may lead to a reduction in imports. On the other hand, geopolitical factors have raised concerns about the return of Iranian plants, and the recent stabilization and rebound of olefin prices have provided momentum for methanol's rebound. In the short term, methanol is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a preference for long positions on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Domestic Supply - As of the week ending January 1st, the national methanol plant operating rate was 77.7%, with coal - based methanol at 85.9%, coke oven gas - based at 60.1%, and natural gas - based at 34.1% [9]. - There are currently several domestic plants under maintenance. In late December, Inner Mongolia Heima and Zhongyuan Dahua were newly added to the list of maintenance plants. Attention should be paid to the restart time of natural gas - based methanol plants in China [12][15]. 3.1.2 Imports - Most Iranian plants are shut down. Since late December, Iranian shipments have decreased, and the volume in January has dropped significantly. It is expected that the reduction in imports will gradually materialize. However, recent US actions against Iran have raised concerns about the return of supply [17][18]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal prices have stabilized after a decline. Due to the increase in heating demand in the north, the daily consumption of domestic coal has rebounded significantly. In the short term, coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. 3.3 Profits 3.3.1 Upstream Profits - The profit of coal - based methanol has rebounded slightly but remains low. The profit of natural gas - based methanol remains in the red, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol fluctuates within a narrow range. As of January 5th, the profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 214 yuan/ton, that of natural gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of coke oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 95 yuan/ton [32]. 3.3.2 MTO Profits - MTO profits have declined slightly recently. The MTO operating rate has fluctuated within a narrow range. There are market rumors that some plants may reduce their loads due to low profits. Attention should be paid to the stability of operations under the background of continuous low profits [42]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Traditional Downstream - The operating rate of traditional downstream industries has rebounded. The operating rates of acetic acid and MTBE have increased, while the operating rate of formaldehyde has decreased slightly. The profits of traditional downstream plants have remained stable at a low level recently and are relatively better compared to the same period last year. Traditional downstream enterprises' procurement is average as it is currently the off - season for traditional demand [51][56]. 3.4.2 Olefin Demand - Olefin enterprises have increased their procurement due to year - end inventory replenishment. The operation of MTO plants has not changed much, but there are rumors that some MTO plants may carry out maintenance and reduce loads due to low profits [44][56]. 3.5 Inventory - Port inventory: Last week, the port inventory was 140,000 tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 732,000 tons. Recently, due to slow unloading at the port, the inventory has been decreasing, but there are many floating storage positions at sea. It is expected that the unloading volume will increase this week, and the port will start to accumulate inventory again [77]. - Inland inventory: The inland inventory has remained at a low level, but with the recent restart of maintenance plants and the impact of snow and rain on transportation in the north, the inland inventory has started to accumulate [77]. - MTO sample enterprises' inventory: The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is at a high level but is decreasing. After the recent price rebound, the willingness to replenish inventory has declined. The raw material inventory of traditional downstream enterprises has not changed much [82]. 3.6 Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the main contract in East China has fluctuated within a narrow range recently. The rebound of futures prices has slightly weakened the port basis, but the absolute price has followed the increase. In the short term, as the port inventory continues to decrease, the basis is expected to strengthen gradually [90]. - Calendar Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread has remained relatively strong recently, mainly because the near - end still has the expectation of inventory reduction, making the near - end stronger. The 2 - 5 and 3 - 5 spreads have increased significantly. In the short term, the positive spread trend is expected to continue [90]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - The report provides the balance sheet data of methanol from April 2025 to March 2026, including total production, imports, total supply, exports, consumption, and surplus, etc. [99]