中泰期货晨会纪要-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the report provides trend judgments for various futures products including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, it also gives trend judgments of偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for different products [4]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is recommended to consider following the trend; for treasury bond futures, the strategy is to flatten the yield curve [11][12]. - In the black sector, steel products may have a mid - term oscillating trend, and it is suggested to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs; for coking coal and coke, the prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; for ferroalloys, silicon iron may fluctuate after a sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term; for soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see, while for glass, it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels [14][16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, lithium carbonate prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options; for polysilicon, it is necessary to operate cautiously as the downward adjustment of premium may not be over [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton may decline in the short - term; sugar is in a season of both supply and demand, and it is recommended to trade in the low - value range; for eggs, the near - term contracts have limited upside, while the far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations; apples may be strong on the futures market; corn may oscillate strongly in the short - term; jujubes are expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the spot price may decline in the middle and late January, and it is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [24][26][28][30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices may oscillate without new events; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices; polyolefins are expected to be weak in the supply - demand aspect and should be treated with an oscillating view; rubber may oscillate, and it is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on pullbacks; methanol's fundamentals are improving in the long - term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered gradually; caustic soda futures should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view; asphalt prices may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game; for the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA; for liquefied petroleum gas, there is support but limited upward space; pulp is advisable to wait and see; logs are expected to oscillate; urea futures may oscillate weakly [36][37][38][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Two major energy central enterprises, Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group, are officially reorganized, aiming to reduce costs and promote high - quality development of the industrial chain [6]. - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, with the value of overseas official gold reserves reaching $3.93 trillion, exceeding that of US Treasury bonds [6]. - US President Trump agrees to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning states that normal Sino - Russian economic and trade cooperation should not be interfered with [6]. - Guangzhou formulates a plan to build an advanced manufacturing powerhouse, accelerating the cultivation of strategic leading industries and emerging pillar industries [6]. - The market supervision department约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly [7]. - Four ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology call for regulating the power and energy storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [7]. - TSMC raises the price of 3nm chips and suspends new 3nm projects due to full orders [7]. - Trump expects the US to "manage" Venezuela and increase the military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027 [7]. - The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. If the Trump administration loses, importers may demand a refund of about $150 billion in tariffs [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary hopes to lower interest rates, and a Fed governor expects a 150 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, which may create about one million jobs without causing inflation [8]. - The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that the US GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, with a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2028, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2028, and the Fed interest rate will drop to 3.4% in Q4 2026 [8]. - In October 2025, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month to $29.4 billion, with exports increasing by 2.6% and imports decreasing by 3.2% [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than expected, and the number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [9]. - Ukraine and the US are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement [9]. - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela, with the US crude oil main contract rising 4.3% to $58.4 per barrel and Brent crude rising 4.57% to $62.7 per barrel [9]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% but still having 15 consecutive positive lines, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.82%. The market turnover was 2.83 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance in the A - share market reached 2604.7 billion yuan, a record high [11]. - The manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December were all in the expansion range, indicating an overall improvement in China's economic climate. The stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, but there may be a possibility of rhythm adjustment [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market tightened, and the bond market rebounded due to the slowdown of the stock index's rise and the sharp correction of commodities. The central bank's policy showed a retreat trend in terms of monetary policy, but the bond market was still optimistic [12]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is less interference in the steel industry, and the production - side policy interference is low. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply of steel mills has a low possibility of negative feedback in the short - term, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation of the steel futures is reasonable [14]. - The demand for iron ore has support for winter replenishment, but the supply is high, showing a loose supply - demand situation. Steel products may oscillate in the medium - term, and it is advisable to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short - term, but are restricted by factors such as coal production, safety supervision, and downstream winter storage. In the medium - term, the domestic mine start - up rate has a theoretical upper limit, and there are potential negative feedback risks in the short - term [16]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon fell sharply. Silicon iron may fluctuate after the sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term. The decline is due to the increase in hedging by manufacturers and the departure of long - position funds [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is relatively weak, and the supply is at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass is relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels. The key is to pay attention to the new production capacity of soda ash and the cold - repair of glass production lines [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the price may oscillate strongly. Although the demand in January decreased, the actual demand is still strong, and the inventory is starting to accumulate, but the accumulation range is limited [20]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - It is expected to be weak due to the planned production cuts of downstream polysilicon manufacturers, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options [21]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The downward adjustment of premium may not be over. After the market supervision department's约谈, the market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern. The spot price may still be supported by the production cuts of large manufacturers [22]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short - term, it may decline due to factors such as poor export data, technical pressure, and profit - taking. In the long - term, the supply may decrease, which is beneficial to the price. Currently, the supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday replenishment and the decline of pre - holiday production [24][25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a season of both supply and demand. Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, but the domestic market has cost support and pre - holiday demand. It is recommended to trade in the low - value range [26][27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The spot price is in the pre - holiday seasonal increase stage, driving the near - term futures contracts to be strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the upside is limited. The far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations [28][29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures market may be strong. Currently, the apple market has limited transactions in the production areas and slow sales in the sales areas. The key is to pay attention to the price changes in the sales areas [30]. 3.5.5 Corn - In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly. The key is the farmers' selling sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the probability of a "panic - selling" is low, and the price is likely to oscillate within a range [30][31]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - It is expected to oscillate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the key is to pay attention to the sales performance in the peak consumption season [32][33]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement, and the spot price may decline in the middle and late January. It is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the political situation in Iran and Venezuela. Although OPEC has suspended production resumption in the first quarter, the probability of future production increase is high. Without new events, the price may oscillate [36]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but there is no strong driving force [37]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong driving force for a large increase. It is advisable to treat it with an oscillating view [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It may oscillate. The overseas raw material prices are strong, providing cost support. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and attention should be paid to international situations and domestic policies [39]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, and the inventory may continue to decrease. Although there is a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month, the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions gradually [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - It follows the general trend of the commodity futures market, and its own fundamentals are weak. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view [41]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term due to raw material factors. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw material uncertainty has decreased, and the pricing method is worthy of attention [41][42]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short - term, the price follows the cost. It is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA. PX has profit support, PTA's supply may increase, and ethylene glycol and short - fiber are under pressure [43]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - There is support from import costs, but the upward space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is relatively tight, but the global supply is abundant. The winter demand is strong, but the chemical industry is under pressure [44]. 3.6.10 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weak, and the futures price faces hedging pressure. The fundamentals are stable, and the price has support from overseas markets. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. 3.6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are expected to be weakly balanced, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [45]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market trading is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly. The Indian urea tender has not met the procurement expectations [46].