国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment is causing disturbances, and the futures prices are experiencing wide fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short positions on the futures market, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: Events are fermenting, and the prices are fluctuating at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price is fluctuating repeatedly [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The previous day's closing price was 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.81%. The previous day's position was 636,674 lots, a decrease of 29,907 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - Macro and Industry News: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [5]. - Trend Intensity: -1, indicating a weak bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.44%. For HC2605, it was 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [8]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 8, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil. There were also data on steel social inventory, production of key steel enterprises, and relevant policies and import data [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: There were changes in spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13][14]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 8, there were price changes in different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. In December 2025, Brazil's manganese ore exports decreased significantly [14][15]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: For JM2605, the previous day's closing price was 1,190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.2%. For J2605, it was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.5%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [17]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 7, there were CCI metallurgical coal index data. This week, the daily production of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and there were changes in the number of shutdown and复产 mines [17]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Logs - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of different log futures contracts. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].