双焦供需趋稳政策约束下的区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to stabilize. Under the policies of "anti - involution and over - production inspection" and energy security constraints, the industry's production capacity will be released in an orderly manner, with the total output expected to be the same as in 2025 [3][49]. - In 2026, the over - capacity pattern in the coking industry is difficult to reverse fundamentally. The supply elasticity remains large, and industry profits will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking significant room for improvement. Coke output will mainly follow the rhythm of downstream hot metal demand and coking coal costs, with the annual output expected to be the same as in 2025 [3][49]. - In 2026, the overall terminal demand for steel is expected to remain flat, lacking significant growth. Steel demand in the real estate sector will continue to decline, while steel used in infrastructure, manufacturing, and steel structures will provide support but with a slowing growth rate. Hot metal and crude steel production will enter a plateau, and steel mills will purchase raw materials on an as - needed basis, making it difficult to drive a trend - upward in coking coal and coke demand [3][49]. - Overall, the supply of coking coal is constrained by policies, with domestic production stabilizing and Mongolian coal increasing slightly due to improved transportation capacity. The over - capacity situation in the coke sector is hard to change, with profits fluctuating narrowly and output varying with hot metal demand and coking coal costs. On the demand side, hot metal production has entered a plateau, terminal demand is weakly stable, and steel mills purchase on an as - needed basis. With the coordination of multiple macro - policy objectives, it is expected that coking coal and coke will show a range - bound oscillation, with coking coal ranging from 850 - 1450 yuan/ton and coke from 1400 - 2000 yuan/ton [3][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the coking coal and coke market showed a V - shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the market declined under the influence of fundamentals, rebounded strongly from June to July due to safety inspections and "over - production inspection" policies, and then entered a wide - range oscillation. Policy trends and supply changes were the core trading factors throughout the year [8]. - In the coking coal market, it remained weak in the first half of the year and reversed in the second half. From January to May, the price declined unilaterally due to increased domestic coal production, sufficient supply, weak market expectations, and sluggish terminal demand. In June, supply contracted due to environmental inspections and production cuts in some mines, and prices stabilized. In July, prices soared due to policy fermentation. From August to October, prices oscillated widely, and after November, prices fell back due to increased supply pressure [8]. - In the coke market, from January to May, prices declined in tandem with coking coal due to falling coking coal prices and high inventory pressure. From June, prices stopped falling and stabilized as coking coal supply contracted. From July to August, prices rose after seven rounds of price hikes. In September, prices were lowered twice. From October to November, prices rose after four rounds of price hikes, and in December, prices fell again due to weak demand [9]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Enters a New Stage of Stable and Orderly Development - In 2025, domestic coking coal production was high in the first half and low in the second half, with policies playing a dominant role. In the first half, under the guidance of the coal - supply guarantee policy, the coal mine start - up rate in major production areas quickly recovered to a high level. After May, the start - up rate declined due to safety incidents, environmental inspections, etc. In July, policies changed, and "over - production inspection" and "anti - involution" became the main policies, leading to a significant decline in the start - up rate. In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to enter a new stage of stability, with the annual output expected to be about 475 million tons, basically the same as in 2025 [11]. 3.2.2 Overall Decline in Coking Coal Imports - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 104.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.67%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.7% of total imports. In November, imports were 10.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.69%. Mongolian coal imports increased significantly in November. In 2026, the total national import volume is expected to be about 119 million tons, maintaining a stable supply [14][15]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In 2025, coking coal inventory in the industrial chain showed significant structural transfer. In the first half, downstream steel mills and coking enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, causing coal mine inventory to accumulate. In the second half, after the implementation of the "over - production inspection" policy, inventory shifted from upstream to downstream. Overall, upstream coal mine inventory first accumulated and then decreased, port inventory fluctuated with supply and demand, and downstream coking enterprise inventory was generally low [31]. 3.2.4 Stable Growth in Coke Supply - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production capacity of metallurgical coke was about 565 million tons. In 2025, the coking industry continued to promote capacity replacement, with a net increase of about 4.68 million tons in capacity. The average capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.51%, a year - on - year increase of 3.2 percentage points. In 2025, the cumulative coke output from January to November was 460.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the future, the industry will accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and industry profits may improve marginally but with limited space [33][34]. 3.2.5 Coke Imports and Exports - In 2025, coke exports shrank significantly. From January to November, cumulative exports were 6.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. Exports were restricted by factors such as overseas capacity expansion, import policies of other countries, and rising coking coal prices. Imports from January to November were 0.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.41 million tons, but had little impact on the domestic supply - demand pattern [37]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - In 2025, the coke industry generally maintained a de - stocking state, with inventory at a neutral - to - low level compared to historical periods. Upstream coking enterprise inventory first accumulated and then decreased, downstream steel mill inventory was maintained at a rigid - demand level, and port inventory was relatively stable. The overall social inventory showed a de - stocking trend [39]. 3.3 Demand Side: Hot Metal Production High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half - In 2025, domestic steel mill production was high in the first half and low in the second half, influenced by profit at the micro - level and policy adjustments at the macro - level. After the Spring Festival, steel demand recovered seasonally, but then weakened in the second quarter. After June, the start - up rate declined due to rising coal and coke costs. From August to October, the start - up rate rebounded slightly but was limited by the slow recovery of the real estate market. In the fourth quarter, the start - up rate declined again due to the off - season [42]. - In 2025, pig iron production was stronger than crude steel production. From January to November, cumulative pig iron output decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and crude steel output decreased by 4%. Hot metal daily output increased from 2.25 million tons at the beginning of the year to 2.4 million tons in June and remained resilient in the second half of the year. In 2026, hot metal production is expected to enter a plateau, with terminal demand remaining stable. The domestic demand for coking coal and coke is expected to be about 600 million tons and 420 million tons respectively [42][43]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Coking coal: In 2026, domestic production is expected to stabilize, with new production capacity having limited contribution. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase slightly due to improved transportation capacity, and Russian coal imports will remain stable [49]. - Coke: In 2026, the over - capacity pattern in the coking industry is difficult to reverse. Industry profits will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, and exports are expected to remain at a low level. Coke output will follow the rhythm of downstream hot metal demand and coking coal costs [49]. - Steel mills: In 2026, the overall terminal demand for steel is expected to remain flat, with real estate steel demand continuing to decline and steel used in infrastructure, manufacturing, and steel structures providing support but with a slowing growth rate. Steel mills will purchase raw materials on an as - needed basis [49]. - Overall: With policy constraints on the coking coal supply side, stable domestic production, and a slight increase in Mongolian coal imports, the supply is generally stable. The over - capacity situation in the coke sector is hard to change, and demand is weakly stable. With the coordination of multiple macro - policy objectives, coking coal and coke are expected to show a range - bound oscillation, with coking coal ranging from 850 - 1450 yuan/ton and coke from 1400 - 2000 yuan/ton [50].