Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the demand aspect, due to environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons. Although the profit margin of steel mills improved slightly, it remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it cannot change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [3][45]. - In the supply aspect, global iron ore supply was strong in December, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and the arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity [3][45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [3][45][47]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In December, the iron ore market first declined and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the disappointment of policy expectations and the continuous reduction of hot metal production, the price of the main contract quickly fell after approaching the pressure level of 800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, supported by the low - level hot metal output, the resilience of steel exports, and the inventory replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventories, the price rebounded and once exceeded 800 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the peak shipping season. The global shipping volume increased to 36.77 million tons month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil contributing an increase of 2.44 million tons. The arrival volume was 26.01 million tons, at a historical high. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output was 2.28 million tons, remaining flat month - on - month but at a historical low. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly within the month, but the off - season and major maintenance restricted the resumption of production. In terms of inventory, port inventories accumulated to 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons month - on - month. Although the equity ore inventory of steel mills was at a low level, short - term inventory replenishment was limited [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Mill Start - up Contraction, Focus on Inventory Replenishment Rhythm Before the Festival - In December, domestic steel mills' production showed an overall contraction trend, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions, year - end concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was about 2.28 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70,000 tons month - on - month, at a historically low level for the same period. The weekly average output of five major steel products decreased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, with a significant reduction in construction steel such as rebar, reflecting the characteristic of structural supply contraction [10]. - The decline in production was mainly due to three factors: continuous production restrictions under the constraints of autumn and winter environmental protection policies, the entry of steel mills into the concentrated maintenance period after high - yield throughout the year, and the traditional off - season of terminal demand, with weak orders in industries such as construction and automobiles, and the pressure of social inventories leading steel mills to actively adjust production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [10]. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills' production is expected to remain in a "weak and stable" state. Constrained by the traditional off - season of terminal demand and year - end concentrated maintenance, hot metal output is unlikely to increase significantly and may continue to fluctuate around the daily level of 2.25 million tons. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore, but due to weak terminal demand, the intensity of replenishment may be limited, and it is difficult to change the current pattern of loose supply [11]. 2.2 End - of - Year Rush in Overseas Ore Shipments - In December, global iron ore supply was strong. Major mines concentrated on shipping at the end of the year, pushing the global iron ore shipment volume to a new high for the year. The total global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.126 million tons month - on - month to 36.771 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 30.596 million tons, an increase of 2.448 million tons month - on - month. Australia's shipment volume was 21.137 million tons, an increase of 1.631 million tons month - on - month, and the iron ore shipped to China increased by 1.73 million tons to 18.676 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume also increased by 818,000 tons month - on - month to 9.459 million tons [18]. - The high shipment volume also raised the expectation of subsequent arrivals. Although the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China decreased slightly by 453,000 tons month - on - month to 26.014 million tons last month, it remained at a historically high level for the same period. According to the shipping rhythm, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on shipments in the first quarter [19]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventories - In December, iron ore port inventories continued to accumulate. The inventory at the 45 ports increased by 3.4603 million tons month - on - month to 158.5866 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. The main reason for the inventory accumulation was the relatively high arrival volume during the shipping peak season, combined with the low port clearance volume during the year - end off - season. Although the average daily port clearance volume increased slightly, it was difficult to offset the arrival pressure [33]. - In terms of structure, the inventory of trade ore increased to 103.6761 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore increased by 4.11 million tons month - on - month to 69.4126 million tons, while the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 1.65 million tons to 56.6956 million tons. Lump ore, pellets, and fines accumulated 1.08 million tons, 610,000 tons, and 2.99 million tons respectively. The high port inventory reflects the phased supply - demand relaxation [33]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In December, steel mills' iron ore inventories remained at a low level. As of the end of the month, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a slight increase of 1.3624 million tons month - on - month, still at a historically low level for the same period. In the context of weak off - season demand and continuous pressure on profits, steel mills generally adopted a low - inventory strategy to control capital occupation and procurement risks [37]. - The proportion of in - plant inventory in steel mills was not high, and the average available days of iron ore remained at about 31 days, in a relatively low normal range, reflecting that steel mills were cautious about the subsequent demand recovery and their procurement behavior was mainly on - demand, lacking the motivation for large - scale inventory building. Although there was a rigid demand for inventory replenishment at the end of the year, due to weak terminal orders, poor sales of finished products, and limited profit repair space, the actual intensity of inventory replenishment was relatively moderate [37]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In December, domestic mine production showed a seasonal decline at the end of the year. The iron concentrate output of 186 mining enterprises was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month and 30,000 tons year - on - year; the output of 126 mining enterprises was 371,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons month - on - month and 13,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of the year, some mines completed their annual production and sales targets, and more mines reduced or stopped production. In terms of regions, the output of major production areas such as North China, Northeast China, and East China all declined to varying degrees [41]. - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production totaled 923.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The cumulative production in the main production areas of Hebei and Liaoning was 407.72 million tons and 160.5 million tons respectively, with a decline of 11% and 4% respectively, which were the main sources of the iron ore reduction. The production in Sichuan increased by 12% year - on - year to 96.32 million tons [41]. 2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In December, shipping freight rates generally declined. As of December 31, the freight rate for the route from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao was reported at $8.59/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $3.42/ton and a year - on - year increase of $2.17/ton, with a growth rate of 34%; the freight rate for the route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was reported at $22.66/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.37/ton and a year - on - year increase of $5.47/ton, with a growth rate of 32% [44]. - In 2025, iron ore shipping freight rates increased significantly. At the beginning of the year, affected by the contraction of global shipping trade volume and high port inventories in China, market sentiment was low, and freight rates were at a low level. With the seasonal recovery of demand, freight rates started to rebound fluctuatingly. In the second half of the year, driven by the strong export of Brazilian iron ore and the significant increase in China's import demand, shipping freight rates continued to strengthen [44]. 3. Market Outlook - Demand side: Affected by environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons, steel production decreased, and the reduction in construction steel was particularly prominent. The profit margin of steel mills improved slightly but remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [45]. - Supply side: In December, global iron ore supply was strong, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and mainstream mines such as Rio Tinto and Vale, as well as non - mainstream regions, all actively rushed to ship. The arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity. High port inventories suppress the willingness to purchase, but low steel mill inventories also limit the downward space of ore prices [45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [45][47].
供强需弱库存，高位铁矿石震荡承压
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2026-01-09 01:36