Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, with the expected re - inflow of institutional allocation funds at the beginning of the year and the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, although the market's economic expectations have improved, the sustainability of economic recovery momentum is uncertain. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak, affected by factors such as the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations in the first quarter [8]. - For precious metals, they may face short - term corrections in January due to the Fed's possible inaction, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to be volatile. For example, copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, aluminum is expected to remain at a high level, and zinc is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term [12][14][17]. - For black building materials, the black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern. Steel prices may be affected by factors such as market rumors, hot - rolled coil de - stocking, and "dual - carbon" policies. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, mainly affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [35][37]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different outlooks. For example, rubber can be traded with a neutral mindset or put on the sidelines; oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy after testing OPEC's export price - support willingness [58][60]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; for other products, trading strategies vary according to their fundamentals [83][85]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned about the irrational competition in the lithium - battery industry, Sichuan set the medical service prices for brain - computer interfaces, the market regulator interviewed photovoltaic leaders, and S&P Global predicted an increase in global copper demand [2]. - Base - ratio of Stock - Index Futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different base - ratios [3]. - Strategy: Adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of going long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market News: On Thursday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed. The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on Japan [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted a 99 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation, with a net injection of 99 billion yuan [6][7]. - Strategy: The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak, affected by factors such as stock - market trends, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [8]. Precious Metals - Market News: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver changed, and Trump and Fed officials' statements boosted the market's expectations of loose monetary policies. The total holdings of SLV silver ETF increased [9]. - Strategy: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market News: The market regulator interviewed photovoltaic enterprises, causing a decline in copper prices. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [11]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with support from supply and pressure from demand [12]. Aluminum - Market News: Domestic sentiment cooled, and the price of Shanghai aluminum weakened relatively. Aluminum inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased [13]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to remain at a high level, supported by low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances [14]. Zinc - Market News: The price of Shanghai zinc index decreased, and zinc inventory changed. The base - ratio and other indicators also had corresponding changes [15][16]. - Strategy: Zinc prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term [17]. Lead - Market News: The price of Shanghai lead index decreased, and lead inventory changed. The base - ratio and other indicators also had corresponding changes [18]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector and have a wide - range oscillation [19]. Nickel - Market News: Nickel prices dropped significantly, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [20]. - Strategy: The bottom of nickel prices may have been reached. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term [20]. Tin - Market News: The price of Shanghai tin decreased, and the supply and demand of tin changed. Tin inventory increased [21]. - Strategy: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market News: The price of carbonate lithium increased, and inventory changed [23]. - Strategy: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines or make light - position attempts due to the high risk of price corrections [24]. Alumina - Market News: The price of the alumina index decreased, and the base - ratio changed [25]. - Strategy: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines. If there is no actual production cut, short positions can be established on rallies [28]. Stainless Steel - Market News: The price of the stainless - steel contract decreased, and the price of raw materials and inventory changed [29]. - Strategy: It is recommended to operate with caution due to the large price fluctuations [30]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market News: The price of the casting aluminum alloy contract decreased, and inventory changed [31]. - Strategy: The price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by cost and supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market News: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts and inventory changed [34]. - Strategy: The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern. Pay attention to market rumors, hot - rolled coil de - stocking, and "dual - carbon" policies [35]. Iron Ore - Market News: The price of the iron - ore contract decreased, and the base - ratio and inventory changed [36]. - Strategy: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, mainly affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market News: The price of the glass contract increased, and the price of soda - ash contract decreased. The inventory of both changed [38][40]. - Strategy: Glass prices have limited upward space due to weak demand; soda - ash prices are volatile due to the game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors [39][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market News: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon contracts decreased, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed [42]. - Strategy: The market sentiment is positive, but pay attention to the impact of factors such as manganese - ore cost and supply contraction. It is recommended to pay attention to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market News: The prices of industrial - silicon and polysilicon contracts decreased, and the prices of spot and inventory changed [47][49]. - Strategy: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to weak fundamentals; polysilicon prices are weak, and it is recommended to operate with caution [48][51]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market News: Rubber prices showed signs of weakness, and the opening rate of tire enterprises and inventory changed [53][55]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral trading strategy or remain on the sidelines. Short positions can be established if the price falls below 16,000 [58]. Crude Oil - Market News: The price of INE crude - oil futures decreased, and the inventory of related refined oil products changed [59]. - Strategy: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [60]. Methanol - Market News: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed, and MTO profit was reported [61]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips due to low valuation and improved future prospects [62]. Urea - Market News: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed, and the base - ratio was reported [63]. - Strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market News: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and indicators such as base - ratio, supply, and demand also changed [65]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [66]. PVC - Market News: The price of the PVC contract increased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [67]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term due to strong supply and weak demand [69]. Ethylene Glycol - Market News: The price of the EG contract increased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [70]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern needs improvement through production cuts. Be cautious about rebound risks in the short term and expect valuation compression in the medium term [71]. PTA - Market News: The price of the PTA contract remained flat, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [72]. - Strategy: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium term [73]. p - Xylene - Market News: The price of the PX contract decreased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [74]. - Strategy: PX is expected to have a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium term [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market News: The price of the PE contract decreased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [76]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market News: The price of the PP contract decreased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [78]. - Strategy: The PP price may bottom out after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [80]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market News: Domestic pig prices showed different trends, and the procurement enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises changed [82]. - Strategy: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and pay attention to the support of far - term contracts [83]. Eggs - Market News: National egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply and demand situation was general [84]. - Strategy: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market News: The prices of protein - meal futures decreased, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Export and inventory data also changed [86][87]. - Strategy: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term due to the intertwining of long and short factors [88]. Oils and Fats - Market News: The prices of oil and fat futures changed, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Indonesia may adjust palm - oil export policies, and domestic inventory data changed [89][90]. - Strategy: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. Oil and fat prices may be close to the bottom range [90]. Sugar - Market News: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Export data of Brazil and relevant policies of India were reported [91][92]. - Strategy: International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [93]. Cotton - Market News: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures decreased, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Export and inventory data also changed [94][95]. - Strategy: Zhengzhou cotton prices may have large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on dips [96].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026-01-09-20260109
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-09 01:36