格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market rumors have limited impact, and there was an increase in positions and a callback during the night session yesterday. Fundamentally, the consumption of the five major steel products decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this week, and inventory accumulation was obvious. However, the hot metal output has rebounded to the level of 2.3 million tons. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the hot metal output will maintain the current level and is unlikely to increase further. There is still inventory replenishment expectation for downstream before the Spring Festival, and coking coal has strong support below before the Spring Festival. After the news is falsified, there is a callback, and it is regarded as a short - term range shock [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Quotes - Yesterday's daytime session: The main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1237.5, a 2.23% increase compared with the daytime opening; the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1765.0, a 0.45% decrease compared with the daytime opening. - Yesterday's night session: The main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1177.5, a 1.05% decrease compared with the daytime closing; the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1730.5, a 1.95% decrease compared with the daytime closing [1]. Important Information - In early 2026, the EU carbon tariff was officially implemented, and the cost of steel exports to the EU will increase significantly. Taking a certificate price of €80/tCO2 as an example, the carbon cost in Indonesia will reach 604.9 euros/ton, and countries with relatively large carbon cost increases also include India, Russia, and China, with China's carbon cost being 161.14 euros/ton. - The research results of key coal mines for power generation in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia show that currently, none of the mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have received official documents or notices related to production capacity reduction, and the market news has not had a substantial impact on the production and sales of coal mines. - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.3%, a 5.7% increase on a week - on - week basis. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, a 127,000 - ton increase on a week - on - week basis, and the raw coal inventory was 4.734 million tons, a 17,000 - ton increase on a week - on - week basis. - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1859 million tons, a 0.4% increase on a week - on - week basis; the total inventory was 12.5392 million tons, a 1.77% increase on a week - on - week basis; the weekly consumption of five major steel products was 7.9862 million tons, a 5% decrease on a week - on - week basis, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 13.5% on a week - on - week basis, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.8% on a week - on - week basis [1]. Market Logic The impact of market rumors is limited, and there was an increase in positions and a callback during the night session yesterday. Fundamentally, the consumption of the five major steel products decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this week, and inventory accumulation was obvious. However, the hot metal output has rebounded to the level of 2.3 million tons. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the hot metal output will maintain the current level and is unlikely to increase further. There is still inventory replenishment expectation for downstream before the Spring Festival, and coking coal has strong support below before the Spring Festival [1]. Trading Strategy After the news is falsified, there is a callback, and it is regarded as a short - term range shock [1].