格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260109

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View On Wednesday, rebar and hot-rolled coils rose significantly and continued to gain at night The price increase in coking coal and coke on the raw material side drove up the prices of finished products The fundamentals changed little, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products decreasing and inventory continuing to decline. The black market rose in the short term due to sector rotation, undervalued value, and coal-related rumors Attention should be paid to whether the resistance level of the rebar main contract can be broken, as well as the risk of a pullback after the rapid rise. Due to insufficient improvement in demand, investors are advised to hold long positions cautiously. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review On Wednesday, rebar and hot-rolled coils rose significantly and closed higher at night. [1] Important Information 1. According to Clarksons, global new ship orders in 2025 decreased by 27% compared to the high level in 2024 but exceeded the average order level from 2021 - 2023. Container ships were the most prominent segment, with new orders reaching 644 vessels and 4.759 million TEU in 2025, exceeding the 4.674 million TEU in 2024. The total investment in new container shipbuilding in 2025 further increased to $59.364 billion (about RMB 415.183 billion), slightly higher than the $58.568 billion in 2024. [1] 2. On January 5th, the Shanxi Provincial People's Government released the list of provincial key projects for 2026, including a total of 629 projects, with 174 energy transformation projects, 226 industrial upgrading projects, 41 science, education, and talent projects, 130 infrastructure projects, and 58 social and livelihood projects. [1] 3. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late December, the daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 1.643 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0%; the steel inventory was 14.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. [1] 4. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months. [1] Market Logic On Wednesday, coking coal and coke on the raw material side hit the daily limit during the day, driving up the prices of finished products. At night, coal and coke continued to lead the rise in the black market. Rebar reached a new high and then pulled back. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, but the trading volume did not increase significantly. The fundamentals changed little, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products decreasing and inventory continuing to decline. Attention should be paid to whether the resistance level of 3200 for the rebar main contract can be broken. The black market rose in the short term due to sector rotation, undervalued value, and coal - related rumors Attention should be paid to the sustainability, and the risk of a pullback after the rapid rise should be guarded against. [1] Trading Strategy Due to insufficient improvement in demand, investors should be wary of the risk of a pullback in the market and are advised to hold long positions cautiously. [1]