棕榈油：等待利空出尽，关注宏观情绪影响，豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会

Report Overview - Report Date: January 9, 2026 - Report Title: "Palm Oil: Wait for Negative Factors to Fade, Focus on Macroeconomic Sentiment Impact; Soybean Oil: Mainly in a Unilateral Range, Focus on Spread Opportunities" 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil should wait for negative factors to fade and focus on the impact of macro - sentiment; soybean oil will mainly move in a unilateral range, and attention should be paid to spread opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,612 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.58%, and closing price (night session) was 8,612 yuan/ton with no change; trading volume was 630,230 lots, an increase of 176,298 lots, and open interest was 393,894 lots, an increase of 326 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price was 7,944 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.18%, and no change at night; trading volume was 258,818 lots, a decrease of 38,383 lots, and open interest was 664,893 lots, an increase of 20,895 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,956 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.53%, and closing price (night session) was 8,952 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.04%; trading volume was 309,993 lots, an increase of 20,169 lots, and open interest was 248,582 lots, an increase of 20,113 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,042 ringgit/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and closing price at night was 4,029 ringgit/ton with a decrease of 0.35% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 49.50 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.39% [1] 3.1.2 Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,005 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [1] 3.1.3 Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 8 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 556 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 894 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 344 yuan/ton, compared with 533 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 668 yuan/ton, compared with - 604 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 112 yuan/ton, compared with 110 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 130 yuan/ton, compared with 150 yuan/ton two days ago [1] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 13 yuan/ton, compared with 14 yuan/ton two days ago [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes due to financial constraints to support its biodiesel program [2] - In 2025, Indonesia's palm - based biodiesel consumption was 14.2 million kiloliters, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, likely starting in the second half of the year [3][5] - The USDA's Kuala Lumpur commissioner predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to benefit from Indonesia's B50 policy. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the 2025/26 season will be about 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [5] - Analysts predict that the average ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season will be 292 million bushels, with a forecast range of 245 - 350 million bushels, compared with the USDA's December estimate of 290 million bushels [5] - Brazil's ANEC expects soybean exports in January to reach 2.4 million tons (compared with 1.12 million tons last year) and corn exports to be 2.85 million tons (compared with 3.19 million tons last year) [5] - Spain has approved a draft decree to increase the blending ratio of renewable fuels in the transportation sector from 12% to 14% in 2026 and is promoting the aviation and shipping sectors to achieve EU targets [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [7]