国泰君安期货所长早读-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Silver has fallen from its high, indicating short - term price pressure. The bullish trend of silver is facing challenges, and the long - term trend has not ended, but the current adjustment is not over [7][8][9]. - The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. The iron element shows short - term high - level fluctuations and long - term pressure, the carbon element's supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the ferroalloy has different trends for different varieties [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - Silver: Due to factors such as the easing of domestic spot premium, the decline of overseas silver lease rate, the convergence of internal and external price differences, and the strengthening of exchange risk control, the pressure for bulls to push up prices has increased. It is judged that the silver trend - following long strategy is worth exiting. The current decline does not mean the end of the long - term trend, but the current point has a poor risk - return ratio, and the adjustment is not over [8][9]. - Black Sector: The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. For the iron element, there is long - term pressure and short - term high - level fluctuations; for the carbon element, the supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the price center will rise; for the ferroalloy, the manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the silicon - iron is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short - term [11][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - Silver: High - level correction. The price has declined, and various indicators show signs of weakening in the short - term [16][20]. - Copper: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen, but the inventory situation is a supporting factor [16][23]. - Zinc: High - level decline. The price and trading volume have decreased [16][26]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen slightly, and the inventory situation affects the price [16][29]. - Tin: High - level loosening. The price has declined, and the market shows signs of weakness [16][33]. - Aluminium: Market sentiment has cooled. The price and trading volume have changed, and the overall market is weak [16][36]. - Alumina: The supply surplus remains unchanged [16][36]. - Cast Aluminium Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminium [16][36]. - Platinum: There is selling pressure due to the outflow of ETF holdings [16][39]. - Palladium: Generally follows platinum, slightly stronger [16][39]. - Nickel: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, with wide - range fluctuations [16][43]. - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are a drag, and the market is mainly focused on the game of Indonesian policies [16][43]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Non - metals - Carbonate Lithium: Inventory has started to increase, and the demand for bargain - hunting purchases supports the price [16][47]. - Industrial Silicon: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices [16][50]. - Polysilicon: Pessimistic sentiment is strong [16][51]. - Iron Ore: The valuation is high, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16][54]. - Rebar: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - Silicon Iron: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - Manganese Silicon: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - Coke: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][66]. - Coking Coal: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][67]. - Log: The price fluctuates repeatedly [16][70]. - Para - Xylene: The market shows unilateral high - level fluctuations, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [16][74]. - PTA: High - level fluctuation market [16][74]. - MEG: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium - term [16][74]. - Rubber: Wide - range fluctuations [16][83]. - Synthetic Rubber: The oscillation center moves up [16][87]. - LLDPE: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired [16][90]. - PP: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter [16][93]. - Caustic Soda: Weak - level fluctuations [16][96]. - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [16][102]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [16][107]. - Methanol: Oscillatory operation [16][110]. - Urea: Short - term oscillatory operation [16][115]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [16][120]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change [16][124]. - LPG: Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [16][127]. - Propylene: The demand is stable, and the spot price slightly increases [16][128]. - PVC: Weak - level fluctuations [16][136]. - Fuel Oil: Strong - level fluctuations, with support at the bottom [16][139]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price rises, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounds slightly [16][139]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Lightly try to go long on the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions on the 04 contract [16][141]. - Short - Fiber: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - Bottle - Chip: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - Offset Printing Paper: Short at high prices [16][158]. - Pure Benzene: Short - term oscillation mainly [16][162]. - Palm Oil: Wait for the negative factors to subside, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [16][166]. - Soybean Oil: The price moves in a unilateral range, and pay attention to monthly - difference opportunities [16][166]. - Soybean Meal: Oscillation, waiting for next week's USDA report [16][172]. - Soybean: Adjustment and oscillation [16][172]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price [16][175]. - Sugar: Range consolidation mainly [16][178]. - Cotton: Fluctuates with the overall market sentiment [16][183]. - Egg: The sentiment for the far - month contract weakens [16][189]. - Live Pig: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [16][192]. - Peanut: Oscillatory operation [16][197].