市场情绪升温，玉米增仓上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillating and slightly bullish", "oscillating", etc. [2][6][8][11][12][15][16][18][19][21][22] Core Viewpoints - The overall agricultural product market shows a pattern of price fluctuations with both upward and downward pressures. Each product is affected by different supply - demand, policy, and weather factors, resulting in different price trends [2][6][8][11][12][15][16][18][19][21][22] Summary by Variety Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: Market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market is rising with increased positions. It is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [1][11] - Logic: Factors such as corn purchase announcements, premium sales of CGC corn, and restricted participation in old wheat auctions have ignited bullish sentiment. Farmers' selling pressure is less likely to be released intensively. Downstream has built up some inventory, and the impact of policy grain source release is limited [1][11] Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The supply - demand report is expected to be bearish, but the spot is firm, and the prices of double meals are falling. It is expected that soybeans, double meals, and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] - Logic: Internationally, there are expectations of a South American soybean harvest, and speculative funds are reducing long positions. Domestically, the purchase of US soybeans is slow, and the inventory of feed enterprises is increasing [7][8] Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Affected by supply - side news, the trends of oils and fats are slightly differentiated. It is expected that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will oscillate [6] - Logic: Different oils are affected by factors such as supply expectations, cost concerns, and macro - environment. For example, the supply of Canadian rapeseed oil is expected to ease, and the production of palm oil may be disrupted [6] Pigs - Viewpoint: The price of pork is fluctuating slightly due to the rotation of pork reserves. It is expected to oscillate [12] - Logic: In the short - term, the supply may increase before the Spring Festival, and the demand decreases after the New Year's Day. In the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken after May 2026 [12] Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: It may experience a significant short - term adjustment. In the short - term, it is treated as bullish [15] - Logic: Affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, although the fundamentals change little, the rubber price may be affected. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [15] Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The market is strongly bullish, but a correction should be watched out for. It is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the medium - term [16] - Logic: The medium - term bullish logic is based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The short - term commodity adjustment may affect the upward trend [16] Cotton - Viewpoint: The cotton price is correcting with a reduction in positions. It is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the long - term [17][18] - Logic: The medium - and long - term price is supported by a tight domestic balance and the expectation of reduced planting area in Xinjiang. However, there is a risk of correction after the recent price increase [18] Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price is fluctuating slightly. It is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the medium - and long - term [18] - Logic: The global and domestic sugar supply is increasing, and there is downward pressure on the price [18] Pulp - Viewpoint: Affected by the change in the financial market, the pulp price is weakening. It is expected to oscillate [19] - Logic: The supply and demand fundamentals have little change. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and the market is affected by both funds and fundamentals [19] Offset Paper - Viewpoint: The market is cooling down, and the market is correcting. It is expected to oscillate [20][21] - Logic: There are limited fundamental changes, and the market is affected by market sentiment. The price may be supported in the short - term but may be weak in the long - term due to weak demand [21] Logs - Viewpoint: The market is warming up, and the logs are following the strong trend of the black - goods sector. It is expected to oscillate within a range from January to February [22] - Logic: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved from January to February. The futures market has certain support and game points [22]