冠通期货资讯早间报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international commodity futures, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also highlights significant events such as geopolitical situations, policy regulations, and corporate developments that may impact the investment landscape. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures mostly closed down, with new energy materials leading the decline (polysilicon hit the daily limit down), while black - series commodities led the gains (coking coal rose 4.75%). Shipping, precious metals, and base metals all declined, with the container shipping index (European line) down 8.98%, platinum down 6.72%, and Shanghai nickel down 6.14% [4][47]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose, with the U.S. crude oil main contract up 4.3% at $58.4 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 4.57% at $62.7 per barrel [5][47]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.57% at $4487.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.19% at $76.69 per ounce [6][47]. - London base metals mostly declined, with LME aluminum up 0.15% at $3088.0 per ton, while others like zinc, copper, lead, tin, and nickel all fell [6][48]. Important Information Macro - Information - Global 20 - foot standard container throughput exceeded 1 billion for the first time at the end of 2025, demonstrating the resilience of global trade [9]. - China firmly opposes the U.S. hegemonic actions against Venezuela and will continue to deepen bilateral economic and trade relations [9]. - In 2025, China's futures market had a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative trading value of 766.25 trillion yuan, up 17.4% and 23.74% year - on - year respectively [9]. - U.S. initial jobless claims rose moderately last week, and the year - end lay - off scale remained relatively low [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of January 8, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 157.27 million tons, up 11.67% from last Wednesday [11]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, down 2.37% month - on - month and up 27.04% year - on - year [13]. - After the holiday, the domestic PTA supply increased slightly, demand was relatively stable, and the balance sheet continued to destock. As of January 7, 2026, the average PTA processing margin was 336.2 yuan/ton, up 17.23% year - on - year [13]. - Trump is planning to dominate Venezuela's oil industry to push oil prices down to $50 per barrel [13]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped to a 3 - week low as of the week ending January 7 [14]. - The target weights of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and natural gas in the 2026 Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will be adjusted, which will affect the allocation of related funds [15]. - An oil tanker associated with Russia's "shadow fleet" was attacked in the Black Sea [15]. Metal Futures - China's power and energy storage battery industry has developed rapidly but faces issues such as blind construction and irrational competition, which need to be regulated [18]. - HSBC believes that gold prices may reach $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debt [19]. - The market regulator may have asked the photovoltaic industry to rectify monopoly - related issues, and polysilicon may return to marginal cost - based pricing [19][21]. - On January 8, 2026, a 17,800 - ton lithium concentrate tender was won at a price of 15,015 yuan/dry ton [20]. - The silver weight in the 2026 Bloomberg weight allocation will be significantly reduced, which may lead to the selling of silver positions by related funds [21]. - The CME will raise the performance margins of precious metal futures on January 9 after the market close [22][49]. Black - Series Futures - Indonesia may approve a coal production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 and adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand [24][50]. - As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week [24]. Agricultural Futures - Analysts expect the U.S. 2025/26 soybean ending stocks to be 292 million bushels [26]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 12, and analysts expect the U.S. soybean inventory to increase by 4.8% year - on - year [26]. - Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints [26]. - Brazil's ANEC expects January soybean exports to reach 2.4 million tons and corn exports to be 2.85 million tons [28]. - U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 878,000 tons, in line with market expectations [28]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% but still having 15 consecutive positive lines. The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index declined, while the Wind All - A Index rose 0.08%. The market turnover was 2.83 trillion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong stocks oscillated downward, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.17%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.05%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.09%. Southbound funds had a net selling of HK$4.9 billion [30]. - As of January 7, 2026, the margin trading balance in the A - share market reached 2.6047 trillion yuan, hitting a new high [31]. - Ping An Life Insurance made its fourth successful bid for China Merchants Bank's H - shares and Agricultural Bank of China's H - shares, each holding 20% of the total H - share capital [33]. - HSBC's proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank was approved [33]. - There are rumors that霸王茶姬 is considering a Hong Kong listing, but the company responded that it has no such plan for now [34]. Industry - The market regulator has asked the photovoltaic industry to rectify monopoly - related issues [35]. - The four - department meeting called for regulating the power and energy storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [35]. - Many car companies in China have launched promotional activities at the beginning of the year to offset the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax increase [35]. - Banks have adjusted the risk access level for individual gold accumulation business [35]. - The Sichuan Medical Insurance Bureau has clarified the prices of invasive brain - computer interface implantation in different - level medical institutions [37]. - The AI search market competition pattern is changing, with Google Gemini's daily web page visits increasing and ChatGPT's decreasing [37]. Overseas - Trump expects the U.S. to "manage" Venezuela for many years, develop its oil reserves, and increase the military budget in the 2027 fiscal year [38]. - The U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs on Friday, and if the government loses, importers may seek a refund of about $150 billion in tariffs [38]. - Trump has ordered the U.S. to withdraw from 66 international organizations [38]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hopes to lower interest rates, and a Fed governor expects a 150 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, which may create about one million jobs without causing inflation [38]. - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S. GDP growth rate to accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, with a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% and a decreasing unemployment rate [39]. - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in October 2025, with exports reaching a record high and imports decreasing [41]. - U.S. initial jobless claims rose slightly last week, and the December lay - off number was at a 17 - month low [41]. - Ukraine and the U.S. are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement [42]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its assessment of the economic situation in all 9 regions, and many Japanese enterprises plan to raise wages in 2026, while the actual wage in November 2025 declined year - on - year [42]. International Stocks - U.S. major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.55%, the S&P 500 up 0.01%, and the Nasdaq down 0.44%. Chinese concept stocks mostly rose [43]. - European major stock indexes closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.02%, the French CAC40 up 0.12%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.04% [43]. - The Japanese stock market fell for the second consecutive day, while the South Korean Composite Index rose slightly [45]. - After the U.S. military raid on Venezuela, Venezuelan assets soared, with the Caracas stock index up about 124% in U.S. dollars [46]. - Samsung Electronics' Q4 2025 operating profit and sales reached new highs due to the rising prices of memory chips [46]. Commodity - The same as the overnight night - market trends section for commodity futures performance [47]. - The CME will raise the performance margins of precious metal futures and lower those of most natural gas contracts [49]. - Trump plans to dominate Venezuela's oil industry and discuss selling up to 50 million barrels of oil [49]. - The ICE will extend the trading hours of UK and EU natural gas and power contracts to 22 hours per day by February 23 [49]. Bond - China's bond market warmed up, with the yields of interest - rate bonds generally falling, and the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract rising 0.37%. Vanke bonds generally rose [51]. - In 2025, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors supported over 2300 enterprises to issue debt financing instruments worth 10.1 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.7 trillion yuan and an average issuance interest rate of 2.05% [51]. - JD Group may issue dim - sum bonds with a potential scale of about 10 billion yuan [52]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 105 points at the 16:30 close on Thursday, and the RMB central parity rate against the U.S. dollar was depreciated by 10 points [53]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.13% at the New York close, and most non - U.S. currencies declined [53]. - South Korea's Ministry of Finance believes that the foreign exchange market is highly volatile, and the exchange rate does not match the economic fundamentals [53]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Various economic data such as South Korea's November current account, Japan's December foreign exchange reserves, China's December CPI/PPI, etc., will be released at different times [55]. - Events including Trump's policy meeting, the press conference on the progress of national water network construction, and the European Central Bank Chief Economist's speech are scheduled [57].