棉花期货日报-20260109

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton Futures Daily Report [1] - Report date: January 6, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the main cotton futures contract CF2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [2]. - The intraday high was 14,885 yuan/ton, the low was 14,640 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume was 394,098 lots, and the turnover was 2.909 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Spot Market - The basis of the CF2605 contract on the day was 960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 6.15% [4]. - The spot reference price (Xinjiang 15,450 yuan/ton) was higher than the futures price [4]. - The basis remained unchanged from the previous trading day, maintaining a significant positive structure [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - As of December 15, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.349 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 983,900 tons [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (C32S) was reported at 21,240 yuan/ton [5]. - The spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,450 yuan/ton, supporting the stability of the basis [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestic cotton prices are supported by the expectation of tightened supply and the recovery of high - value - added cotton product exports [6]. - However, the high commercial inventory and cautious downstream procurement restrict the upside space [6]. - It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the new import quota regulations and RMB exchange rate changes [6]