格林期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260109

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to remain weak in the medium to long - term due to sufficient supply, while the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) market will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the medium term [2][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 20895 lots in open interest; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7814 yuan/ton, up 0.08% day - on - day, with an increase of 2413 lots in open interest [2] - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 326 lots in open interest; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, up 0.57% day - on - day, with an increase of 1940 lots in open interest [2] - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day, with a decrease of 20113 lots in open interest; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 8943 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 977 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - In November 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (2.21 billion bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons in November last year [2] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared with the same period in November [2] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory addition program in the second half of 2026 [2] Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil has risen, boosting the strength of U.S. soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is under pressure due to negative rapeseed - related news; palm oil is oscillating due to a combination of inventory pressure and strong international crude oil; rapeseed oil has fallen rapidly due to China - Canada negotiation news [2][3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Vegetable oils are generally bearish but show some differentiation. Soybean oil is bearish, palm oil is oscillating in the medium term and bearish in the long term, and short positions in rapeseed oil should be held [3] - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil spread [3] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 31418 yuan/ton, down 1.03% day - on - day, with an increase of 2782 lots in open interest; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2875 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 3858 lots in open interest [3] - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 64896 lots in open interest; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2419 yuan/ton, down 1.87% day - on - day, with an increase of 7102 lots in open interest [3] Important Information - U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres in the 2026/2027 season [3][4] - As of December 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean exports to China in the 2025/26 season were 659,000 tons [4] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons [4] - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean harvest progress was 0.1% [4] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 season soybean sowing was 82% complete [4] - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 are expected to be 3.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 69% [4] Market Logic - Externally, the bottom of U.S. soybeans is supported, but the upside is limited. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has increased, while rapeseed meal has been affected by news and has seen a high - level correction [3][4][5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The two - meal market should maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset in the medium term and engage in intraday trading [5] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is proposed for now [5]