格林大华期货区间整理月报-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Corn: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - term, focusing on the pressure at previous high points; follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost in the long - term, with emphasis on policy guidance [4][6][7] - Pig: In the short - term, supply and demand growth drive narrow price fluctuations; in the medium - term, supply pressure eases from April; in the long - term, supply pressure weakens after September. Consider low - buying opportunities for contracts after 2609 if sow inventory keeps falling [9][11][12] - Eggs: In the short - term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. In February, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may push prices down. In the medium - term, egg supply pressure remains. In the long - term, the rising scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases. Look for short - selling opportunities for near - term contracts [14][15][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 9th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were slightly stronger. Northeast enterprises' mainstream purchase price was 2163 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; North China's average purchase price was 2253 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [4] - North and south port prices rose slightly on the 9th. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2265 - 2275 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Shekou Port's transaction price was 2410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 9th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 1900 to 36555 hands [4] - In the 2nd week of 2026, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 56%, higher than last year's 49% and the three - year average of 48%; in North China, it was 47%, compared with last year's 50% and the three - year average of 46% [4] - As of January 9th, the total corn inventory at four northern ports was about 1.56 million tons, and the inventory at Guangdong Port was 800,000 tons [4] - In the 2nd week of 2026, CGS's corn bidding purchase plan was 57,400 tons, with 73,600 tons actually transacted (77% success rate); the bidding sales plan was 304,900 tons, with 264,800 tons actually transacted (87% success rate); the two - way purchase and sales plan was 99,500 tons, with 30,600 tons actually transacted (31% success rate) [5] Market Logic - Medium - term: The corn market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. New - grain selling is faster year - on - year, and downstream restocking provides support. However, imported corn auctions and rumors may limit price increases. Maintain a wide - range trading approach [6] - Long - term: Follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [6] Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading approach in the medium - term. For the 2603 contract, focus on the pressure at 2270 - 2280; for the 2605 contract, focus on 2280, and if it breaks through, the pressure moves up to 2300 [7] Pig Important Information - On the 9th, the national average pig price was 12.61 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg [9] - The official data shows that the number of fertile sows in October 2025 was 39.9 million, dropping below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [9] - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July). In October and November 2025, it decreased by 1% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a supply pressure relief from April [9] - As of January 8th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.1 kg, down 0.29 kg from the previous week [9] - On January 9th, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [9] - As of January 9th, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 918 hands [10] Market Logic - Short - term: Supply and demand growth lead to price fluctuations with limited upside and downside. After mid - month, the return of the southern population may put pressure on southern prices, narrowing the north - south price difference [11] - Medium - term: Supply is expected to increase until March, but pressure will ease from April. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [11] - Long - term: Supply pressure exists until September. If the sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities for contracts after 2609 [11] Trading Strategy - Maintain a range - trading approach. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 11900 - 12000, and the support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 12400 - 12500, and the support is at 12000 - 12100; for the 2607 contract, the pressure is at 13000, and the support is at 12700; for the 2609 contract, the pressure is at 14000, and the support is at 13500 - 13700 [12] Eggs Important Information - On the 9th, the national egg price was stable with slight increases in some areas. The average price in main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; in main sales areas, it was 3.56 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - On the 9th, the overall inventory was stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.04 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days [14] - On the 9th, the average price of Hy - Line brown old hens in the mainstream market was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged. As of January 8th, the weekly culling age was 484 days, unchanged [14] - In December, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion. The theoretical estimated number in January is 1.334 billion [14] - As of January 9th, the number of egg futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7 hands [14] Market Logic - Short - term: After continuous price increases, the supply and demand are balanced, and prices are stable. The current average price is between feed and breeding costs. In February, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may push prices down [15] - Medium - term: The decline in culling age is insufficient, and chick replenishment is increasing. The egg supply pressure remains, and the spot price is expected to be low [15] - Long - term: The increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases. Wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [15] Trading Strategy - Given the pessimistic expectation for February's spot price, look for short - selling opportunities for near - term contracts after a price increase. Also, consider the reverse spread opportunity for the 2603/2604 contracts. For the 2603 contract, the first pressure is at 3030 - 3050, the second at 3060 - 3080. A break below 3000 may lead to further price drops. Don't be overly optimistic about the egg price in the second half of the year before over - culling occurs. Focus on the culling situation in the first quarter [16] Regional Grain - Selling Progress Northeast Region - In the 2nd week of 2026, the overall grain - selling progress in the Northeast was 56%, with 66% in Heilongjiang, 46% in Jilin, 62% in Liaoning, and 51% in Inner Mongolia [23] North China Region - In the 2nd week of 2026, the overall grain - selling progress in North China was 47%, with 41% in Hebei, 49% in Henan, and 51% in Shandong [25]