2025年12月美国就业数据分析：1月降息预期打消

Employment Data - In December 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below the market expectation of 65,000, while the previous month's data was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6%, while the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4% from 62.5%[1] - The broader U6 unemployment rate declined to 8.4% from 8.7%[1] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.33% month-on-month and rebounded to 3.76% year-on-year from 3.62%[1] - The average weekly hours for private sector employees fell to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours, indicating weak demand[1] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.3 basis points to approximately 3.51%, and the 10-year yield increased by 0.8 basis points to around 4.17%[1] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened to around 99, influenced by rising Treasury yields[1] Sector Performance - The government sector added 13,000 jobs, with notable contributions from education and healthcare services, which added 41,000 jobs[1] - The manufacturing sector experienced job losses for three consecutive months, with a decrease of 8,000 jobs in December[1] - Retail and transportation sectors also saw job losses, with retail shedding 25,000 jobs and transportation losing 6,600 jobs[1] Future Outlook - The market has largely dismissed the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026, with potential cuts anticipated in June 2026 under the new Fed chair[1] - The report indicates a mixed labor market, with cyclical industries showing weakness while government employment growth turned positive[1]