12月通胀数据解读：2025年通胀回眸

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with core consumer goods, services, and fresh produce prices improving. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to - 1.9%, and prices gradually recovered from upstream to mid - downstream after the "anti - involution" policy [2][3]. - In December 2025, due to the decline in vegetable price growth and the seasonal recovery of consumer goods, CPI's year - on - year increase rebounded to 0.8% under the low - base effect. PPI's month - on - month increase rebounded to 0.2% due to the heating season and the impact of imported non - ferrous metals [29][45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Inflation Review CPI - In 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The factors contributing to the CPI increase from high to low were core consumer goods (0.63 pct), fresh produce (0.4 pct), services (0.25 pct), while livestock and meat (- 0.19 pct) and energy (- 0.3 pct) dragged it down [2][9]. - Core consumer goods: Gold prices contributed half of the increase, and prices of household appliances and daily necessities improved under consumption - promoting policies. Services: Service consumption scenarios mainly related to travel still supported prices, with significant price fluctuations between peak and off - peak seasons. Livestock and meat: Pig production capacity reduction was slow under "large - scale" farming, and terminal demand was weak, leading to a slow decline in prices. Fresh produce: Extreme weather affected production and transportation, tightening supply and driving up prices. Energy: Trade frictions led to weak demand and a downward price trend [2][14][15]. PPI - In 2025, the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to - 1.9%. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, mid - stream production materials industries showed positive signals, but the durable consumer goods manufacturing industry related to long - term income expectations and closer to terminal demand was still weak [24]. - Industries with continuous price increases included the imported non - ferrous metal industry chain, which had six consecutive months of price increases. Domestically, industries generally saw price recovery from upstream to mid - downstream, such as coal and black mining in the upstream, the paper - making industry, and then lithium - ion battery manufacturing and non - metallic mineral products industries [27]. December CPI Food Items - CPI food prices increased by 0.3% month - on - month, slightly weaker than the seasonal average, driving CPI up by about 0.05 percentage points. Pork prices decreased slightly due to oversupply, and fresh produce prices were weaker than the seasonal level, with fresh fruit prices rising seasonally and fresh vegetable prices rising less than expected [31]. Non - food Items - The non - food item of CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, stronger than the seasonal average, driving CPI up by about 0.12 percentage points. Energy prices decreased slightly, core consumer goods drove CPI up by about 0.16 percentage points (21% contributed by gold price increases), and service prices had limited impact on CPI during the off - travel season [32][37][38]. December PPI Overall - In December, PPI's month - on - month increase rebounded to 0.2% after 19 months, with price increases spreading from the mining industry to raw material and processing industries. Production material prices increased by 0.2%, while downstream living material prices remained flat [45]. By Industry - The number of industries with rising prices among industrial producers remained at 9. Supportive factors included the seasonal increase in demand and prices of coal, gas, and the non - ferrous metal industry chain, as well as the continuous price recovery of the paper - making industry. The drag factor was the imported crude oil industry chain [47][51][59].