花生期货日报-20260110

Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Peanuts - Researcher: Chen Bo [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term peanut futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Technical analysis shows that the price has rebounded for two consecutive days after hitting a recent low, with increased trading volume, indicating a warming of short - term market sentiment. Fundamentally, the insufficient supply in the production area supports the price, but the weak demand for peanut oil limits the upside potential [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the opening price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange peanut futures main contract (PK.CZC) was 8066 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8124 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8072 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 144,402 lots, the turnover was 5.83125 billion yuan, and the open interest was 164,702 lots. The price showed a volatile upward trend, and the trading volume and turnover increased compared to the recent average, indicating enhanced market trading activity [2] 3.2 Spot Market - From January to June 2025, the basis showed a volatile downward trend, gradually falling from 1582 yuan to around 1000 yuan, reflecting a narrowing of the price difference between futures and spot. The long - term positive basis indicates that the peanut futures market has been in a state of spot premium, reflecting the market's expectation of tight peanut spot supply [4][5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - On January 7, the market price of peanut general rice was stable, with an average price of 8571 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The supply at the grass - roots level was still insufficient. The trading in the Henan production area was good, and the replenishment and procurement by merchants in the Northeast production area increased slightly. Most transactions were negotiated. The mainstream price of the peanut oil market was 14,320 yuan/ton, the peak demand season was less than expected, the downstream trading atmosphere was sluggish, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders was not high. The stalemate between limited supply in the peanut production area and cautious replenishment by traders is the main factor supporting the current price [6] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - In the past 20 trading days, the peanut futures price showed a range - bound trend, mainly fluctuating in the range of 7920 - 8120 yuan/ton. After hitting a stage low of 7938 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, the price rebounded for two consecutive days, rising 1.56% on January 6 and 1.0% on January 7, forming a short - term rebound trend. The current price has broken through the upper limit of the 20 - day trading range, showing signs of stabilization and recovery on the technical side. The 20 - day high of 8124 yuan/ton forms a short - term resistance level, and around 8000 yuan/ton below forms the main support [7]