Xinda Securities·2026-01-10 11:06Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles will be replaced under the vehicle trade-in program, leading to a total retail of 23.744 million passenger cars, with approximately 54% being new energy vehicles [20][3] - The report indicates a projected growth in the automotive market, with a U-shaped sales trend expected for passenger vehicles in 2026, maintaining overall sales levels similar to 2025 [20] - Key companies to watch include BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and others in the passenger vehicle sector, as well as major players in commercial vehicles and auto parts [3][20] Industry Performance - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 2.53% compared to the 2.79% rise in the CSI 300 index, ranking 24th among A-share industries [3][9] - The report notes that the passenger vehicle segment saw a 3.8% year-on-year increase in retail sales, while new energy vehicles experienced a 17.6% growth [20] Key Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced that the vehicle trade-in program will exceed 11.5 million vehicles in 2025, contributing to over 1.6 trillion yuan in new car sales [20] - Geely received the largest L3 autonomous driving test license in China, covering an area of 9,224 square kilometers [20] - Baidu's autonomous driving platform, "萝卜快跑," obtained the first full unmanned testing license in Dubai, paving the way for commercial operations [20] Upstream Data Tracking - The report includes tracking of key material prices such as steel, aluminum, and lithium carbonate, which are crucial for automotive manufacturing [23][24]