美国12月非农不及预期，就业市场继续降温

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Core View - The December non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, and the job market continued to cool. The new employment center continued to decline, but the unemployment rate dropped again, and the overall downward risk was still controllable. The market's expectation for interest rate cuts remained cautious after the data was released, with a high probability of a pause in rate cuts in January, and 1 - 2 rate cuts within 2026 likely to occur in the second half of the year [3][4][39] Summary by Relevant Catalog US 12 - month Non - farm Payrolls and Job Market Analysis - Non - farm payroll data: In December, non - farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, less than the market expectation of 60,000. The average monthly new jobs in the past 12 months were 48,000, and the new employment center further declined. The new employment numbers in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the market expectation and the previous value, and the labor participation rate marginally declined to 62.4%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.3% month - on - month, up from the previous value and in line with expectations, and 3.8% year - on - year, higher than expectations and the previous value [3][9] - Sector - specific employment: New employment mainly came from leisure and hospitality (47,000), education and healthcare (41,000), and government (13,000). All industries in the production sector laid off workers, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure due to high interest rates. The drag on employment from the government sector eased, and the service industry maintained employment resilience [3] - Private service employment: Private service employment added 58,000 jobs, up from the previous value. However, the retail industry laid off 25,000 workers for the third consecutive month, and the employment structure continued to deteriorate [19] - Government employment: In December, government employment increased by 13,000, with federal government employment increasing slightly by 2,000. Since January 2025, federal government employment has decreased by 277,000, a decline of 9.2%, and the subsequent drag on the job market from the government sector may ease [19] - Service industry employment: The end - of - year consumer demand rebounded, and employment in the catering service industry increased. The ISM service PMI in December rebounded significantly to 54.4, and the employment sub - index rose to 52, indicating that the service employment market remained resilient [23] - Production sector employment: The production sector continued to lay off workers, with a reduction of 21,000 jobs in December. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December further declined to 47.9, and the traditional manufacturing industry was still suppressed in a high - interest - rate environment [26] - Job vacancies: In November, the number of job vacancies dropped to 7.15 million, lower than expectations and the previous value. The service industry's job vacancies decreased significantly, while the production sector's job vacancies increased slightly [30] - Wage growth: In December, wage growth rebounded marginally, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.3% and a year - on - year growth rate of 3.8% higher than expectations. Most industries saw a rebound in wage growth, except for construction, professional and business services, and education and healthcare [34] - Working hours: In December, the average weekly working hours were 34.2 hours, slightly lower than expectations and the previous value. Most industries saw a decline in working hours, and the overall economic situation was stable [36] Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical risks have increased recently, with the Trump administration's military actions in Venezuela and its interest in Greenland's sovereignty. This has triggered short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, providing support for the US dollar index and precious metals. Economic data is mixed, and the market's expectation for the new Fed chair is divided between Hassett and Waller. The expectation for interest rate cuts remains cautious, with the US Treasury yield oscillating upwards and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [5][44]