尿素周报：逢高空配-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Short on rallies" for urea [16]. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is expected to turn bearish. Therefore, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Market Trend: The report provides a chart of the urea index from January 1, 2025, to December 24, 2025, but no specific analysis of the trend is given [14]. - Factor Assessment & Strategy: - Supply: Urea production is expected to tighten marginally due to upcoming winter maintenance. The current strong demand from India and favorable export policies suggest a slightly bullish outlook [16]. - Demand: The downstream production rate has shown little fluctuation, but the off - season is approaching at the beginning of the next year, resulting in a neutral outlook [16]. - Inventory: Port inventories are slightly increasing, with a limited marginal impact. Factory inventories are decreasing rapidly from a high level, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16]. - Cost: The replenishment of thermal coal has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline from a high level. Oil and gas prices are expected to remain weak with limited fluctuations, resulting in a neutral outlook [16]. - Last Week's View: Given the opening of the import window and the expectation of increased production at the end of January, it was recommended to take profits on rallies [16]. - This Week's View: Given the opening of the import window and the expectation of increased production at the end of January, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Basis: The report presents charts of the 01 basis seasonality and the spot market price of Shandong urea, but no specific analysis is provided [20]. - Price Difference: Charts of the urea 1 - 5 price difference and the urea term structure are provided, but no specific analysis is given [23]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Charts of the trading volume and open interest of urea 01, weighted trading volume, and weighted open interest are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [26]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Charts of fixed - bed profit, water - coal slurry profit, and gas - based production profit are provided, but no specific analysis is given [31][33]. - Urea Inventory: Charts of urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory change projections are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [41][44]. 4. Supply Side - Urea Supply: Charts of urea production and import volume are provided, but no specific analysis is given [49]. - Urea Production Rate: Charts of urea production rate, gas - based urea production rate, device maintenance loss volume, main - producing area enterprise advance orders, and monthly production projections are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [52][53]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Projection: Charts of monthly consumption, downstream demand proportion, compound fertilizer production rate, compound fertilizer production profit, and the ratio of urea to compound fertilizer are provided, but no specific analysis is given [58][60]. - Nitrogen Source Price Ratio: Charts of the ratio of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [63]. - Melamine: Charts of melamine production rate, profit, and export volume are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66][68]. - End - Users: Charts of the export volume of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, housing construction and completion data, 30 - major - city average 5 - day commercial housing transaction area, and foreign market prices are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [74][78][82]. - Export: Charts of urea export volume, export profit, sea freight to India, and export volumes of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers are provided, but no specific analysis is given [85][87][90]. 6. Options - Related - Urea Options: Charts of urea option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and option volatility and futures price are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [96][98][106]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - Urea Industry Chain: The report provides a chart of the urea industry chain, a research framework analysis mind - map, and an overview of the industry chain characteristics, including the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions of China and major countries around the world [110][112][114]. - Domestic Demand Seasonality: The off - season for domestic fertilizer demand is from January to February. The peak demand season runs from March to July, with the highest demand in June and July. The off - season resumes in August, followed by wheat fertilizer preparation and winter fertilizer reserves [117]. - International Demand Seasonality: India's peak demand season is from June to October, lagging behind China by 2 - 3 months. The United States' peak season is about one month earlier than China's. The peak season in Latin America is from August to September [118].