盘面波动加剧，短期延续宽幅震荡，注意市场短期情绪冲击：锰硅周报-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The commodity market has been volatile since the first week after the New Year, with the bullish sentiment likely to continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the short - term high - volatility risks caused by sentiment "leaders" such as silver and lithium carbonate [15][97]. - The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. But these factors are mostly priced in and are not the main contradictions for future market trends. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement due to some factory maintenance and production conversion [15][97]. - The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon will be influenced by two main factors: the direction of the black sector or the overall market sentiment, and the cost - push problem from manganese ore in the ferromanganese sector and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) problem in the ferrosilicon sector due to losses or the "dual - carbon" policy. Special attention should be paid to potential emergencies in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][97]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: Tianjin 6517 ferromanganese spot price was 5740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM603) closed at 59040 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 26 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.44%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics. The estimated immediate profit of ferromanganese remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 414 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 541 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 438 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week - on - week). The estimated immediate cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6114 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at 6171 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at 6188 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly output of ferromanganese was 19.10 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 191.04 tons, up 2.82 tons week - on - week, and the daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. The estimated visible inventory of ferromanganese was 55.03 tons, up 0.54 tons week - on - week, still at a high level compared to the same period [14]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was at a low level and decreased slightly week - on - week. The production profit continued to be in the red. The output decreased slightly, while the rebar and hot - metal output increased slightly. The inventory remained at a high level. The tender volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased month - on - month. The ferromanganese futures price fluctuated sharply last week, and there was no obvious short - term trend. Future market trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - related factors [15]. 3.1.2. Spot - Futures Market As of January 9, 2026, Tianjin 6517 ferromanganese spot price was 5740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM603) closed at 59040 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 26 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.44%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - Production Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferromanganese remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 414 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 541 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 438 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25]. - Production Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores increased, while the price of off - grade metallurgical coke decreased. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi remained stable, while that in Ningxia decreased by 0.015 yuan/kWh. The estimated immediate cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6114 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at 6171 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at 6188 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27][30]. - Manganese Ore Import: In November, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: As of January 2, 2026, the manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, reaching 438.9 tons, down 7.9 tons week - on - week. Among them, the Australian manganese ore port inventory was 65.7 tons, down 2.3 tons week - on - week, and the high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 117.5 tons, down 7.4 tons week - on - week [36][39]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - Total Output: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of ferromanganese was 19.10 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 4.40%. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - Output in Main Production Areas: No specific summary information provided other than data presentation. - Steel Tendering: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's ferromanganese tender volume in December 2025 was 14700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56]. - Consumption: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of ferromanganese was 11.59 tons, up 0.08 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 191.04 tons, up 2.82 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. In November 2025, the national crude steel output was 6990 tons, down 210 tons month - on - month and 850 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 8.82 billion tons, down 3340 tons or 3.65% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week [59][62][63]. 3.1.5. Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of ferromanganese was 55.03 tons, up 0.54 tons week - on - week, still at a high level compared to the same period [70]. - Visible Inventory (Bi - weekly): The inventory of sample enterprises was 38.25 tons, down 1.1 tons week - on - week. - Steel Mill Inventory: In December, the average available days of ferromanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [76]. 3.1.6. Graphical Trends Last week, the ferromanganese futures price fluctuated sharply, with no obvious short - term trend. Future attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton and the support level at around 5800 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: The daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.73 tons, up 0.46 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5632 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 168 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.90%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics. The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 393 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 270 yuan/ton (up 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at - 797 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week). The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week), Ningxia at 5590 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at 6097 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week). The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [95][96]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis decreased slightly week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level. The production profit continued to be in the red. The hot - metal output continued to rise, and the demand for magnesium metal improved. The inventory increased slightly, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period. The steel tender volume and price decreased month - on - month. The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated sharply last week, and future market trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - related factors [97]. 3.2.2. Spot - Futures Market As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5632 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 168 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.90%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [102]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - Production Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 393 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 270 yuan/ton (up 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at - 797 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [107]. - Production Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials remained stable. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu remained stable, while that in Ningxia decreased by 0.015 yuan/kWh. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week), Ningxia at 5590 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at 6097 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week) [110][113]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - Total Output: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [118]. - Output in Main Production Areas: No specific summary information provided other than data presentation. - Steel Tendering: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and up 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - Steel Consumption: As of January 9, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. In November 2025, the national crude steel output was 6990 tons, down 210 tons month - on - month and 850 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 8.82 billion tons, down 3340 tons or 3.65% year - on - year [127]. - Non - steel Consumption: From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons year - on - year. As of January 9, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16950 yuan/ton, up 1150 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year. The estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 101 yuan/ton, still at a low level compared to the same period. From January to November 2025, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 7.67 billion tons, up 170 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [130][133][134]. 3.2.5. Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.73 tons, up 0.46 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period [141]. - Steel Mill Inventory: In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days, down 0.39 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [144]. 3.2.6. Graphical Trends Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated sharply, with the short - term price returning to range - bound trading. Future attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 5850 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton and the support level at around 5500 yuan/ton [1