铁矿石周报：黑色系补涨，矿价高位震荡-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment drove the mid - week rally of black - series commodities. The upside of iron ore prices is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels. The subsequent focus should be on steel mills' restocking and hot metal production rhythms. As overseas shipments enter the off - season and hot metal production resumes, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. However, market sentiment has entered an unstable stage, increasing volatility risks, so operations should be cautious with attention to position control [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments totaled 3.2137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 2.7427 billion tons, down 316,900 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 billion tons, down 174,100 tons, and those to China were 1.6153 billion tons, down 252,300 tons. Brazilian shipments were 803,200 tons, down 142,700 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2.8247 billion tons, up 96,900 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, an increase of 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 17.04444 billion tons, up 322,650 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 336,960 tons, down 3,250 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were higher than the same period in previous years. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but remained at a low level, indicating some restocking demand [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spreads: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 80 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 22.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratios and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.66%, down 0.03 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, up 0.26 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.14%, down 0.24 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profits: The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 14.45 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - 45 - port Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory was 16.27526 billion tons, up 304,370 tons. Pellet inventory was 344,790 tons, up 2,790 tons. Iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.46277 billion tons, up 146,590 tons. Lump ore inventory was 2.11538 billion tons, down 17,650 tons. Australian ore port inventory was 7.18534 billion tons, up 98,190 tons. Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.6639 billion tons, up 92,650 tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mills' Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.98959 billion tons, up 43,050 tons from last week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China via 19 ports was 1.5538 billion tons, down 248,500 tons week - on - week. Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, down 151,500 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 549,900 tons, down 146,400 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 496,400 tons, down 17,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 562,500 tons, down 72,700 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 276,600 tons, down 158,100 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival and Non - mainstream Imports: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons week - on - week. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1.90041 billion tons, down 84,500 tons month - on - month [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 58.41%, up 2.96 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 45,650 tons, up 2,320 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, up 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mills' Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 323,270 tons, down 1,940 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 283,280 tons, up 2,610 tons week - on - week [73]. 3.6 Basis As of January 9, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.81% [78].