铜周报：情绪面偏暖，铜价高位波动-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is bullish, and copper prices are fluctuating at a high level. The short - term supply of copper ore remains tight, and although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, copper prices are strongly supported. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M contract is expected to be between 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: In the new year, spot demand has slightly improved. Downstream buyers make moderate purchases at low prices, but demand is still suppressed by high prices. The initial consumption start - up rate of downstream industries continues to decline. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread has widened, increasing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. However, the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production is maintained at a low level due to fiscal and tax policies [11]. - Supply: The spot processing fee for copper concentrate continues to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper remains high. There are supply disruptions such as strikes at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine and the postponed commissioning of the Mirador copper mine, and Codelco's production is below the expected target. The tight supply situation at the mine end persists [12]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 789,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 181,000 tons, LME inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 467,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - Imports and Exports: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has relatively narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has declined. In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 3.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices: The US raid on Venezuela enhanced the value of strategic resources, causing copper prices to surge. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.23% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 4.05% to 12,965.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - Spot Prices: The domestic copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [29]. - Market Structure: The SHFE copper market shifted to a Contango structure, while the LME copper market maintained a Back structure [32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate declined to - 45.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - Import - Export Ratio: The offshore RMB depreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [40]. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss of copper spot imports has shrunk [43]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 47,000 tons to 789,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants increased by 29,441 to 111,216 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined [46][49][52]. 3.4 Supply Side - Production: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase slightly month - on - month and maintain a relatively high year - on - year growth. In November 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [56]. - Imports and Exports: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The imports of anode copper were 58,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. The imports of refined copper were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The imports of recycled copper were 208,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0% [59][62][65][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption Structure: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), and transportation (11%). In China, the main consumption areas are construction (26%), equipment (23%), and infrastructure (17%) [78]. - Downstream Industry Data: In November, the year - on - year production of automobiles, freezers, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The domestic real - estate data in November continued to be weak, and the National Real - Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84][86]. - Downstream Enterprise Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December and are expected to change accordingly in January. This week, the start - up rates of electrolytic copper rods, wire and cable, and copper strips declined [101][104]. - Scrap - Refined Price Spread: The domestic scrap - refined copper price spread widened, reaching 4,401 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 3.6 Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 127,796 to 1,363,282 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2601 contract were 47,740 lots (bilateral) [114]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 6, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 18.1%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 2) [117].