美国12月非农就业数据点评：美联储或继续观望降息效果

Employment Data - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, which was below the market expectation of 65,000 and a decrease from the revised November figure of 64,000[3][15] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, which was lower than market expectations, indicating a marginal improvement in the labor market[5][20] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations[3][15] Labor Market Trends - The labor force participation rate remained stable at approximately 62.4%, while the unemployment rate decreased, suggesting a slight recovery in the labor market[5][20] - Permanent unemployment and first-time job seekers increased, while re-employment and temporary job seekers decreased, indicating a preference for hiring experienced workers[24][20] - Job openings in November were 7.146 million, down by approximately 303,000 from October, reflecting a slight easing in labor market tightness[6][38] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts, having already reduced rates by 75 basis points in 2025[7][46] - The Fed's decision to lower rates in December was influenced by rising unemployment risks, but the recent decline in unemployment may lead to a period of stable rates[7][46] - The Fed is expected to consider 1-2 additional rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the second half of the year[9][50]