生猪周报：等待反弹抛空-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices and holiday effects have stimulated better consumption. Meanwhile, the large spread between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding and withholding sentiment. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving a rational rebound in the futures market. In the short - term, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts of the futures market to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is large and will be concentrated around the Spring Festival. The structural contradiction of the tight supply of large pigs will gradually be resolved over time. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the near - term contracts and wait for a rebound to sell short. For the far - end contracts, the direction of capacity reduction is certain, but the rhythm is unclear. Generally, wait for a decline to buy [11]. - The recommended trading strategies are to wait to short the 03 and 05 contracts on rallies with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 in 2 - 3 months, and mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. 3. Summaries According to Different Sections 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, the pig price first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream had a strong sentiment of withholding sales. However, the demand decreased after New Year's Day, resulting in a narrower increase in the pig price. The average trading weight increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the spread between fat and standard pigs decreased from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Specifically, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 13.08 yuan/kg, in Sichuan it remained flat at 12.9 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong it dropped by 0.44 yuan to 12.72 yuan/kg. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. But the resistance of the breeding side may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price will mainly show a slight decline [11]. - Supply Side: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction. The theoretical出栏量 will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the year - on - year figure is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs is tight, and the spread between fat and standard pigs is high, leading to hoarding and withholding sentiment. The slaughter volume is not low, but the average trading weight has increased counter - seasonally, indicating a backlog of live inventory [11]. - Demand Side: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the support for the market is insufficient. The high price of large pigs has slowed down the pace of secondary fattening, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Trend: The pig price first declined and then rose last week. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream had a strong sentiment of withholding sales. After New Year's Day, the demand decreased, resulting in a narrower increase in the pig price. The average trading weight increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the spread between fat and standard pigs decreased from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. But the resistance of the breeding side may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price will mainly show a slight decline [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price rebounded, the basis of the futures market turned positive, and the inter - month spread turned to positive arbitrage [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - Fertile Sows and Changes: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - Theoretical出栏量: The theoretical出栏量 will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the year - on - year figure is still high [42]. - Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter: Currently, the supply of large pigs is tight, and the spread between fat and standard pigs is high, leading to hoarding and withholding sentiment. The slaughter volume is not low, but the average trading weight has increased counter - seasonally, indicating a backlog of live inventory [49]. 3.4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the support for the market is insufficient. The high price of large pigs has slowed down the pace of secondary fattening, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is continuously declining due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Despite the low cost, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen pork inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].