蛋白粕周报：延续震荡，等待新的指引-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward room requires greater production cuts. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may discuss the tariff issue of rapeseed products, and the current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively large, with a weak real - world fundamental situation. However, the inversion of soybean crushing margins provides some support to prices. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Market Review - External Market: This week, US soybean prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the CBOT soybean March contract closed at 1062.75 cents per bushel, up 16.75 cents per bushel from the previous week, a 1.6% increase. The March - May contract spread of CBOT soybeans was - 12 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents per bushel from the previous week [9]. - Domestic Market: This week, the prices of protein meal rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the soybean meal May contract closed at 2786 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.37% increase. The rapeseed meal May contract closed at 2391 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 2.93% increase. Regarding spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean meal was - 90 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton from the previous week; the May - September contract spread of rapeseed meal was - 60 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis of the soybean meal May contract was 354 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of the rapeseed meal May contract was 162 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week. The May soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 448 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. Industry Information - According to USDA export sales data, as of the week ending January 1st, US soybean exports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports of soybeans in the current year were 28.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 million tons. Among them, soybean exports to China in that week were 470,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97 million tons. - According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week ending January 2nd, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons. The operating rate of sample oil mills was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 1.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons. - The USDA will release the December monthly supply - demand data and quarterly inventory report on January 12th. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit China from January 13th to 17th, and this visit will focus on four major issues: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [9]. Fundamental Assessment - The assessment of soybean meal fundamentals shows that there are both bullish and bearish factors. The 5 - month contract basis is + 354 yuan per ton, the US soybean 3 - 5 spread is - 12 cents per bushel, the soybean import crushing margin is - 21 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 448 yuan per ton. The international soybean supply is in the South American planting season, the domestic supply has high inventory but is starting to destock, the current apparent consumption is relatively high, and there are also factors such as the Sino - US trade war. The overall conclusion is that with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - For both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures and spot market, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu, the basis of the main contracts, monthly spreads, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [19][22][25][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate, with data sources from the USDA and the research center of WK Futures [34][37]. - Weather Conditions: Charts of precipitation observations of Brazilian, US, and Argentine soybeans compared with the same period of the year are presented, as well as a summary of the weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas, with data sources from WORLD AG WEATHER and the research center of WK Futures [40][42]. - US Soybean Export Progress: Multiple charts show the US soybean's current and next - year market - year cumulative contract volume, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds, with data sources from the USDA, customs, and the research center of WK Futures [47][50][53]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [56]. - Brazilian Soybean Export and Shipment to China: Charts show the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, with data sources from SECEX, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [59][62][65]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [70]. - Protein Meal Inventory: Charts of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [73]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: Charts of the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [76]. 3.5. Demand Side - Protein Meal Demand: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [80]. - Breeding Profit: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [82].