白糖周报：缺乏驱动因素，短线观望-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term wait - and - see [1] Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see for now [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The international raw sugar price rebounded slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 14.89 cents per pound, up 0.29 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.99% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar May contract was 5288 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 0.7% increase [9] - Industry News: The Indian government will review the export performance of sugar mills after March 31, 2026, and may redistribute unused quotas. Brazil exported 2913000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 80000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 390000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the sugar exported to China in December was 385300 tons, an increase of 330000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 56000 tons month - on - month. As of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1582300 tons [9] - Viewpoints and Strategies: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish sugar - crushing in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The domestic short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [9] - Fundamental Assessment: The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, with various indicators showing a mostly neutral or slightly positive situation [10] - Trading Strategy Suggestion: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest waiting and seeing [11] 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, raw - refined sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to comprehensively show the price spread changes in the sugar market [17][24][32] 3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, reflecting the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [39][42][47][50] 4. International Market Situation - Brazilian Central - Southern Region: The report shows charts of the production, shipment volume, and inventory of sugar in the Brazilian central - southern region, reflecting the production and supply situation in this major sugar - producing area [55][66] - India and Thailand: The report shows charts of the sugar production in India and Thailand, reflecting the production situation in these two important international sugar - producing countries [60][63]