油脂周报：高库存现实和乐观预期交织-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the domestic three major oils are weak due to high production in palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high domestic inventories. However, in the long - term, with Indonesia's measures such as confiscating illegal plantations and implementing the B50 plan, and the expected significant increase in the total consumption of bio - diesel oils in the US in 2026, the outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: This week, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. As of Friday, the May contract of soybean oil closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous week; the May contract of palm oil closed at 8,682 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 1.14%; the May contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,042 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.5%. In terms of spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean oil was 156 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was 112 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 21 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The basis of the May contract of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Information: Indonesia's Energy Ministry may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints. Last year, Indonesia consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. The Energy Ministry has allocated 15.65 million liters of palm - based biodiesel for this year's blending task and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The Indonesian President said that Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report next Monday. As of the week ending January 2, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [11]. - Viewpoint Summary: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [11]. - Fundamentals Assessment: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is high, while that of palm oil is low. The biodiesel spread is neutral considering inventory, and the import profit is low. Palm oil in the producing areas still has high inventory in the first quarter. Global sunflower seed production is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, and rapeseed production will increase by 9 million tons. Global palm oil inventory is still at a low level. Overall, oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spreads between different contracts, etc., including the basis of the May contract of palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of the May contract of soybean oil, the basis of the May contract of rapeseed oil, the spread between the May contracts of soybean oil and palm oil, the May - September contract spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [19][20][23][25][27]. 3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply - side situation of the oils [31][33][34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Overall Inventory: The report shows the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts [39]. - Palm Oil: It presents the near - month import profit of palm oil, the commercial inventory of palm oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [41][48]. - Soybean Oil: It shows the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants [43]. - Rapeseed Oil: It shows the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [45]. 5. Cost Side - Palm Oil: It shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed: It shows the import price of rapeseed oil for near - month shipments and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - Oil Transactions: It shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - Biodiesel Profit: It shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].