聚烯烃周报 2026/01/10：春检将至，持续反弹-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, and the United States will take over Venezuela's oil exports. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is expected to undergo spring maintenance and production cuts. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract faces no new capacity pressure. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may contribute to the continuous backwardation of polyolefin prices [15][17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6300 - 6600; for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 6200 - 6500. The recommended strategy is to go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a bull - spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, and the United States will take over Venezuela's oil exports. In terms of valuation, polyethylene's weekly increase shows the order of futures > spot > cost, while for polypropylene, it is futures > cost > spot [15]. - Cost Side: Last week, WTI crude oil dropped by - 3.38%, Brent crude oil by - 4.72%, coal price rose by 3.43%, methanol by 3.94%, ethylene by - 0.89%, propylene by 1.40%, and propane by 1.87%. The cost side still provides support [15]. - Supply Side: PE capacity utilization rate is 83.39%, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, a - 3.17% year - on - year decrease, and an - 8.36% decrease compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 73.85%, a - 3.97% week - on - week decrease, a - 7.22% year - on - year decrease, and a - 17.27% decrease compared to the five - year average. With the approaching spring maintenance and low profits in each process, there is an expectation of significant production cuts [15]. - Import and Export: In November, domestic PE imports were 1.0622 million tons, a 5.04% month - on - month increase and a - 9.99% year - on - year decrease. PP imports were 179,300 tons, a 5.97% month - on - month increase and a - 8.74% year - on - year decrease. Import profits have declined, and the supply of PE from North America has decreased, reducing the pressure on the import side. In November, PE exports were 85,800 tons, a 3.07% month - on - month increase and a 38.74% year - on - year increase. PP exports were 224,100 tons, an 8.54% month - on - month increase and a 36.59% year - on - year increase [15]. - Demand Side: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.80%, a - 0.85% week - on - week decrease and a 10.75% year - on - year increase. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.76%, a - 0.90% week - on - week decrease and a - 2.13% year - on - year decrease. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, there are no bright spots in the downstream operation of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory is 395,400 tons, a 6.66% week - on - week inventory build - up and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 29,300 tons, a 6.21% week - on - week inventory build - up. PP production enterprise inventory is 467,700 tons, a - 4.69% week - on - week inventory drawdown and a 13.24% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 204,700 tons, a 15.52% week - on - week inventory build - up; PP port inventory is 71,100 tons, a 7.24% week - on - week inventory build - up. Middle - stream traders have started to stock up [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of polyethylene and polypropylene, including term structure, prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads, to show the market trends and price relationships of LLDPE and PP [32][48][51]. 3.3 Cost Side - The methanol - based production cost has strengthened. The report also presents various cost - related price charts, such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, and propane prices, to analyze the cost factors affecting polyolefins [77][80][82]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is 80% oil - based, 12% light - hydrocarbon - based, 5% coal - based, 2% methanol - based, and 1% purchased ethylene [137]. - Production Plan: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects planned, with a total of 5.2 million tons of un - commissioned capacity [142]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: The capacity utilization rate and output of PE are presented through charts, showing their trends over time [143][148]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - Inventory: Traders are actively stocking up on PE. The report shows various inventory data, including production enterprise inventory, two - oil enterprise inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, and trader inventory [163][164][165]. - Import and Export: The import and export volume and profit of PE are analyzed. In November, PE imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [15][169]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly for packaging films (51%), followed by hollow products, pipes, injection - molded products, agricultural films, etc. [174]. - Downstream Operating Rate and Inventory: The report shows the downstream total operating rate, packaging film available days, agricultural film order days, and raw material inventory of PE [182][184][186]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of raw materials for PP production is 53% oil - based, 25% PDH - based, 18% coal - based, 2% methanol - based, and 2% purchased propylene [192]. - Production Plan: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polypropylene production projects planned, with a total of 4.37 million tons of un - commissioned capacity [198]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: The capacity utilization rate and output of PP are presented through charts, showing their trends over time [199][201]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Import - Export - Inventory: The report shows various inventory data of PP, including production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory [208][211][215]. - Import and Export: The import and export volume and profit of PP are analyzed. In November, PP imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [15][222][227]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand for PP is mainly for拉丝 products (34%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymers, injection - molded products, BOPP, etc. [232]. - Downstream Operating Rate and Inventory: The report shows the downstream total operating rate, injection - molding operating rate, pipe operating rate, and plastic - weaving operating rate of PP, as well as the raw material and finished - product inventory of plastic - weaving and BOPP [238][242][247].