锌周报：铜锌比值新低，板块氛围积极-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From the perspective of the industrial situation, the visible inventory of zinc ore has increased slightly, the imported TC of zinc concentrate has declined again, the zinc smelting profit has slowly increased with the rise of zinc price, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has slightly increased. There has been no obvious improvement in the industrial situation. From the perspective of sector sentiment, the non - farm payrolls data in December fell short of expectations. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has broken through the lowest level since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007. Since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has broken through the lowest level since 2013. The zinc price still has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected that the zinc price will mainly fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.01% at 24,007 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 218,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 17.5 to $3,152.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 232,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,030 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 90 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of 20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 20 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 70 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 113,400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with January 5. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: LME zinc ingot inventory was 108,000 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,200 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was - $42.57/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $9.25/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.094, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,887.04 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 38 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 266,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 52.98%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 363,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.73%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.51%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In December 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of - 7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 0.86%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 519,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,859,100 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2%. In November 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 545,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,568,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 266,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5%. In November 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 572,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 6,539,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - Stage Operating Rate and Zinc Purchasing Volume: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 52.98%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 363,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.73%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.51%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [39]. - Apparent Demand for Zinc Ingots: In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,407,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Zinc Ingot Inventory: The report shows various inventory data of zinc ingots, including upstream finished - product factory inventory, downstream raw - material inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded - area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. - Zinc Ingot Balance: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 31,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 131,900 tons. In October 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic and Overseas Basis Spreads: Domestic Structure: The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 113,400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with January 5. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,900 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: LME zinc ingot inventory was 108,000 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,200 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was - $42.57/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $9.25/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.094, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,887.04 yuan/ton [60][63][66]. - Position and Price Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bearish [69].