贵金属周报：金银价格驱动存在分化，进入重点观察时点-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metal prices rebounded strongly. Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets increased, with silver showing a more significant increase. Trump's policies have impacted the US dollar's credit, making international gold prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing and tariff rulings may have short - term negative impacts on silver prices, but in the medium - term, silver prices still have upward drivers. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are 970 - 1050 yuan/gram and 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram respectively [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Performance: This week, precious metal prices had a strong - leaning rebound. SHFE gold rose 2.96% to 1006.48 yuan/gram, SHFE silver rose 9.70% to 18731.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 4.07% to 4518.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 10.41% to 79.79 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 [11]. - Gold Price Driver: Trump's multi - dimensional policies have further impacted the US dollar's credit, driving the strong performance of gold prices. The total holdings of major overseas gold ETFs increased from 2352.2 tons on January 2nd to 2355.2 tons on January 9th. International gold prices are generally expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - Silver Price Analysis: The volatility of silver prices has significantly increased. The 2026 BCOM index rebalancing will be gradually adjusted in batches starting from January 8th and completed around January 15th. The potential reduction of long positions in silver by commodity funds or ETFs tracking the BCOM index and the possible outflow of silver spot from the US if the silver tariff is exempted are short - term negative factors for silver prices. However, in the medium - term, the large holdings of silver ETFs and the expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end [11]. - Technical Analysis: The technical graph of SHFE gold shows a trend of upward breakthrough at the end of the triangular convergence, and further price increases are expected. The technical graph of SHFE silver is extremely strong, having entered the accelerated upward phase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 20000 yuan/kilogram above. If it is effectively broken, the upward trend can continue [13][15]. 2. Market Review - Price and Position Changes: This week, domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The total positions of SHFE gold increased by 1.87% to 31.86 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.3% to 48.81 million lots as of the latest reporting period. The total positions of SHFE silver increased by 6.19% to 67.79 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX silver decreased by 2.64% to 15.32 million lots as of the latest reporting period. As of the latest reporting period on January 6th, the net long positions of COMEX gold managed funds decreased by 2827 lots to 123,200 lots, and the net positions of COMEX silver managed funds increased by 1814 lots to 15,822 lots [28][30][34][36]. - ETF Holdings: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2355.2 tons as of January 9th, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 29294.9 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - US Treasury Yield: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds [50][51]. - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: It shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: The weekly changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are detailed, including the changes in assets and liabilities. The total assets decreased by 670.16 billion US dollars [55]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - CPI and PCE: In November, the year - on - year CPI in the US was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% in September. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected previous value of 3.0% in September [62]. - Employment Situation: As of the week ending on January 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [65]. - PMI and PPI: In December, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [68]. - New Housing Data: In October, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.246 million, lower than the expected 1.325 million and the previous value of 1.291 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.412 million, higher than the expected 1.35 million [71]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The report shows the basis between gold TD and SHFE gold [74]. - Silver Basis: It presents the basis between silver TD and SHFE silver [77]. - Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Gold and Silver: The domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver are shown [80]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventories: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][90][91]. - Gold Inventories: It presents the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [92][94].