棉花周报：短线涨幅过大，郑棉冲高回落-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Affected by the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has risen significantly. After reaching a high level, the short - term price volatility may increase. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The price of US cotton futures continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract was 64.48 cents/pound, up 0.47 cents/pound from the previous week, a 0.73% increase. The US cotton 3 - 5 spread was - 1.48 cents/pound, down 0.14 cents/pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose first and then fell. The closing price of the May contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.62% increase. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,930 yuan/ton, up 374 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was 1,234 yuan/ton, up 277 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - Industry Information: Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week ending January 1, the US current - year cotton export sales were 23,200 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons. Among them, exports to China were 3,200 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 71,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,900 tons. As of the week ending January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, unchanged from the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [9] - Viewpoint and Strategy: Wait for a callback and then go long [9][10][11] 2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract through charts [25][26] - Import Profit: The report shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external price difference and the sliding - scale tariff internal - external price difference through charts [27][28] - Zhengzhou Cotton Spread: The report displays the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 spread and the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread through charts [29][30] - Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit: The report presents the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit through charts [31][32] - Foreign Market Spread: The report shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff through charts [36][37] 3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: The report shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price through charts [40][41] - Cotton Import Volume: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes through charts [42][43] - US Export Contract Quantity to China: The report shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China through charts [44][45] - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes through charts [46][47] - Downstream Operating Rate: The report shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates through charts [49][50] - National Sales Progress: The report presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City through charts [52][53] - Cotton Inventory: The report shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial through charts [54][55] - Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory: The report presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory through charts [56][57] 4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: The report shows the trends of the proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the US cotton good - quality rate through charts [60][61] - US Production Situation: The report presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume through charts [62][63] - US Yield and Planting Area: The report shows the trends of the US cotton yield forecast and planting area through charts [64][66] - US Export Contract Progress: The report presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities through charts [68][69] - US Export Shipment Volume: The report shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes through charts [70][71] - US Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: The report presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [72] - Brazil Yield and Planting Area: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and yield through charts [73][74] - Brazil Export Volume: The report presents the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume forecast and monthly export volume through charts [76][77] - Brazil Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [79] - India Yield and Planting Area: The report presents the trends of India's cotton planting area and yield through charts [81][82] - India Consumption and Import - Export: The report shows the trends of India's cotton consumption, import and export volumes through charts [84][85] - India Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: The report presents the trends of India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [87]