甲醇周报：地缘预期向上，基本面上限拉锯-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its future pattern is expected to improve marginally, with limited downside potential. Despite short - term negative pressures, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [16]. - This week's view: Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment - Factor Assessment & Strategy - Supply: Overseas methanol production starts to slow seasonally, while domestic production remains at a high level. In terms of trade flow, previous high overseas shipments are arriving at ports, and current overseas shipments are seasonally decreasing, with a neutral outlook [16]. - Demand: The operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain relatively high, and MTO valuation is low but lacks obvious driving forces. Downstream users are hesitant about the current methanol price, which limits the upside, with a neutral outlook [16]. - Inventory: Port inventory is decreasing at a slower pace from a high level and is expected to start accumulating again. Factory inventory remains stable, with a slightly bearish outlook [16]. - Cost: The replenishment of thermal coal is less than expected, and its price has started to decline from a high level. Oil and gas prices are in a weak oscillation, with expected limited fluctuations, with a neutral outlook [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Basis and Spread: Multiple charts show the term structure of methanol, prices in Jiangsu, basis of methanol 01, and spreads between methanol 1 - 5, etc., reflecting the price relationship between futures and spot markets [20][22][26]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Charts display the open interest and trading volume of methanol 01 contract, as well as the total open interest and trading volume of methanol, which can reflect market activity [29][32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Include the prices of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal (Ordos Q5500 and Qinhuangdao Port Q5500), which are important factors affecting methanol production costs [43][45]. - Production Profit: Calculate the production profits of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and other regions, as well as the profit of gas - based methanol in the southwest region, which can reflect the profitability of methanol production [48][49]. - Port Inventory: Show the inventory of ports in South China, East China, and the social inventory of methanol, which can reflect the supply situation in the market [53][55]. - Regional Inventory: Include the inventory in factories, the northwest region, the east region, and Ningbo Port, which can reflect the inventory distribution in different regions [64]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Monitoring: Monitor the global and Middle - East methanol shipments, as well as the arrivals in Asia - Pacific and China, which can reflect the supply situation from overseas [68]. - Upstream Output and Operating Rate: Display the domestic and overseas methanol operating rates and weekly output, which can reflect the domestic and overseas production capacity utilization [71][73]. - Import Volume: Analyze the import volume of methanol from Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, etc., and the total import volume and its projection, which can reflect the import situation [74][78]. - Arrival Volume: Show the arrival volume of methanol in East China, South China, and the whole of China, which can reflect the actual supply from overseas [83]. - International Price Difference: Analyze the import profit, price differences between China and Southeast Asia, the US Gulf, and Europe, which can reflect the international price relationship [85]. - Regional Price Difference: Indicate that port prices are weaker than inland prices, and show the price differences between East China and Inner Mongolia, East China and South Shandong, etc., which can reflect the regional price relationship [87][88]. - Domestic Freight: Show the freight rates of methanol transportation from different regions, which can reflect the transportation cost [96]. 3.5 Demand Side - Methanol - to - Olefins: Analyze the operating rates of olefins and Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO, as well as the profits of Fude and Xingxing in the MTO process, and the production profits of PP through different processes, and relevant price differences, which can reflect the demand and profitability of the methanol - to - olefins industry [100][101][110]. - Traditional Downstream: Analyze the capacity utilization rates of 1,4 - butanediol, the operating rates and profits of DMF, DMC, acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., as well as the downstream inventory and relevant product price ratios, which can reflect the demand situation of traditional downstream industries [121][122][133]. 3.6 Option - Related - Methanol Options: Show the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of methanol options, which can reflect the market sentiment and trading activity of the option market [141]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - Methanol Industry Chain: Display the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map, which can help understand the overall structure and research ideas of the methanol industry [145][147].