Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The nickel market is experiencing intensified competition between expectations and reality, with nickel prices expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The market has shifted from "strong expectations" to "weak reality," and sentiment has turned from optimistic to cautious. The short - term outlook for nickel prices remains uncertain, with prices expected to continue to fluctuate widely [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Nickel Ore: This week, influenced by the significant increase in LME nickel prices, Philippine nickel ore offers were slightly raised. However, downstream smelters, with sufficient previous stockpiles, had limited acceptance of high prices, and the procurement pace slowed significantly. Affected by rainfall, Philippine ore shipments were disrupted, and nickel ore inventories at Chinese ports decreased slightly. In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore benchmark price was slightly raised, but the spot price was weak. Due to the rainy season, forestry reviews, and delays in MOMS system verification, mine shipments slowed down, and miners were reluctant to sell. Overall, the short - term nickel ore market has weak demand and supply disruptions but no significant tightening. Nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [11][12]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China rose significantly this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 31.23 yuan/nickel point to 946.4 yuan/nickel point (ex - factory tax included). This was mainly driven by the widening of the spot - futures price difference and upstream price support. Some Indonesian iron plants switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, and traders locked in goods for arbitrage, resulting in tight market supplies. Although the downstream is in the off - season, the increase in futures prices has improved the profits of stainless - steel enterprises, supporting the ferronickel price. In the short term, the high - nickel pig iron price is expected to remain strong [11][12]. - Intermediate Products: In the intermediate product market this week, the increase in nickel prices drove the profit recovery of some electrolytic nickel plants, and the demand for raw material inquiry and restocking gradually emerged. However, nickel salt plants were still cautious in purchasing due to sufficient previous stockpiles. The spot circulation of MHP was limited, and the tight supply supported the nickel and cobalt coefficients at high levels and stable operation. The supply - demand pattern of high - grade nickel matte remained tight, but downstream acceptance of high coefficients was limited, and trading was light. The coefficients are expected to continue to operate at high levels [11][12]. - Refined Nickel: This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, driven by the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and macro - loose sentiment, both domestic and foreign prices soared rapidly. However, in the middle of the week, due to a significant increase in inventory and limited downstream acceptance of high prices, prices dropped sharply. The sharp increase in LME nickel inventory and weak downstream demand quickly shifted the market from "strong expectations" to "weak reality," and sentiment turned from optimistic to cautious. In the spot market, the price and premium of electrolytic nickel generally increased, but downstream purchasing willingness was limited, with obvious speculative hoarding characteristics. Domestically, loose liquidity supported prices, but the postponement of overseas interest - rate cut expectations dampened sentiment. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,500 - 19,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to nickel, including the price trends of nickel futures contracts, nickel spot premiums and discounts, and prices of secondary nickel products such as ferronickel and nickel sulfate, providing a comprehensive view of the nickel futures and spot market [15][18][21]. 3. Cost - Side - Nickel Ore: The report shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, and nickel ore prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through various charts, reflecting the supply and price situation of the nickel ore market [26][28][30]. - Ferronickel: It presents the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China, helping to understand the cost and profitability of the ferronickel industry [32][34]. - Intermediate Products: Data on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and transaction coefficients of intermediate products are provided, showing the supply, demand, and price trends of the intermediate product market [36][38][40]. 4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons. The report also provides charts on domestic refined nickel monthly production and enterprise operating rates [44][45][46]. - Demand: The report uses multiple charts to analyze the demand for refined nickel, including domestic stainless - steel production and inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real - estate demand [47][49]. - Import and Export: Charts show domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, reflecting the import and export situation of refined nickel [51]. - Inventory: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 32,814 tons to 344,377 tons. The report also shows domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventories [53][55]. - Cost: Charts present the production cost of domestic refined nickel by raw material and the production profit margin by process [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - Supply: The report provides data on China's nickel sulfate production and net imports through charts, showing the supply situation of the nickel sulfate market [60][61]. - Demand: Charts show the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, reflecting the demand for nickel sulfate [63][64]. - Cost and Price: It presents the production cost, price, and production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials [65][66][67]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report details the supply - demand balance of the global primary nickel market from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products such as NPI, refined nickel, and nickel salts. It also calculates the supply - demand gap and its proportion, as well as the supply - demand gap and proportion of refined nickel, and shows changes in global refined nickel visible inventory [70][71].
镍周报：预期现实博弈加剧，镍价高位宽幅震荡-20260110
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-10 13:35