钢材周报：短期驱动不足，延续震荡格局-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market this week was positive, but the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The production of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The production of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. Although the previous sentiment in the commodity market was strong, the black - series products still oscillated in the bottom range and were sensitive to news. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils and the potential impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: This week, the total rebar production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%. The cumulative production was 3.7926 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45%. The long - process production was 1.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.88%. The short - process production was 330,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.61% and a year - on - year increase of 15.31%. The production of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 0.9%, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.6%. The daily average pig iron production was 2.295 million tons, with a slight rebound in pig iron production. The rebar production continued to decline, and the hot - rolled coil production was relatively high, indicating certain pressure on the supply side. The blast furnace profit of rebar in East China remained around 68 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit during off - peak hours was 81 yuan/ton, which was relatively high [11] - Demand: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. The cumulative demand was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The demand continued to decline, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The export of hot - rolled coils remained strong, and the comprehensive demand for hot - rolled coils was neutral [11] - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 2.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. The total inventory was 4.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The rebar inventory continued to decline, and the current inventory trend was relatively healthy. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.6813 million tons. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the destocking rhythm was slower than in previous years, and the current inventory level was relatively high [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the price and trading volume of rebar in different regions (North, East, South), the basis and price differences of rebar futures contracts (January, May, October), the price and basis of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai for different contracts, the price differences between hot - rolled and rebar futures, the price differences between China and other regions (Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe), and the prices and price differences of cold - rolled, color - coated, and galvanized steel coils [24][26][29] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the blast furnace and electric furnace profits of rebar, and the spot profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [80][83][85] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and factory inventory of rebar, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan and 55 rolling enterprises, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils in China, including social and factory inventories [93][102][105] 3.4 Cost Side - Charts present the ratio of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, the daily average pig iron and crude steel production, the price of square billets, the difference between rebar and billet prices, the prices of scrap steel (heavy scrap, crushed scrap), the consumption and cumulative consumption of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel in electric furnace smelting [111][114][117] 3.5 Supply Side - This week, the total rebar production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production was 3.793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The long - process production was 1.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The short - process production was 330,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. Charts also show the production, production cumulative year - on - year, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [134][138][140] 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year change of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the export and production volume of household appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners), and the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [145][153][160]