国债周报：通胀数据持续改善-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The December PMI data shows that both supply and demand ends have rebounded. With external demand and policy support, demand has warmed up. However, the sustainability of economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market may face certain pressure due to the improved market expectations for the economy, but in the long - term, it is still advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations in the first quarter [10][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In December, the PMI data indicated that both the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry had recovered, and it returned to the expansion range. The export data in November was stronger than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilient growth in non - US regions. The central government emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, and there were still expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In the US, the liquidity situation improved, and the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year [10]. - Key Economic Data: In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year. In the US, the non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The US president announced a plan to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. On January 8, the central bank conducted a 90 - day RMB 1.1 trillion outright reverse repurchase operation for equal - amount rollover. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3579 trillion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November. The Ministry of Commerce prohibited the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to allocate over RMB 100 billion in funds for Yangtze River protection projects [10][11][12]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted RMB 138.7 billion in reverse repurchase operations this week, with RMB 1.7937 trillion in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of RMB 1.655 trillion. The DR007 rate closed at 1.47% [13]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.88%, up 3.03 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year yield was 2.31%, up 3.50 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 1.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by the combination of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Performance: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][23][24][27]. 3. Major Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the third quarter of 2025, China's GDP actually grew by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [40]. - PMI Sub - items: In December, the manufacturing PMI sub - items showed a moderate improvement in both supply and demand. The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, and new orders increased by 1.6 points to 50.8 [46]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [49]. - Export Data: In November 2025, China's exports were stronger than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Exports to the US decreased by 28.5% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 8.17% [52]. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [55]. - Investment and Real Estate Data: From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 15.9%. In November, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year - on - year decline was 5.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the completion end data in November was 18.06%, and the new home sales data in 30 large - scale cities had weakened recently [58][64]. - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP grew by 2.33% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. In December, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 [67][70][73]. - European Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP grew by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service industry PMI was 52.4 [73][76]. 4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In November, the M1 growth rate was 4.9%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.0%. The social financing increment was 2.5 trillion yuan, with an increase of 160 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.0%, and the government bond growth rate was 18.80% [81][84]. - Central Bank Operations: In December, the MLF balance was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 138.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.7937 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.47% [87]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report provides the latest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Chinese government bond yields, and US Treasury yields [90]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB and the US dollar index [100].